DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS50

This publication builds on POST’s previous horizon scans and represents evidence gathered between May 2020 and December 2020. Topics that could be indicative of change were identified by POST advisers and commented on by peer reviewers on a collaboration platform to exclude or identify subjects of interest (the contributors and organisations are listed below). Further subjects were then excluded based on voting by peer reviewers, with the areas of change that progressed through this process then peer reviewed by the contributors and organisations (listed below). Ten subjects listed under six category headings were reduced to five through the voting process for each category. The categories are based on the drivers of change identified in POSTnote 500, Towards 2020 and Beyond: demographic change and healthcare; social and cultural trends; geopolitical and governance challenges; environmental pressures and climate change; resource security and sustainability; and technological advances. The summaries of these areas of change are subjective judgements about the implications of these developments for public policy and will inform the deliberations of the POST Board when prioritising POST’s future work programme.

Foresight research portrays future possibilities (as distinct from probabilities) via a range of possible approaches, such as scenarios. Horizon scanning is a subset of foresight research, the process of searching for and describing possible emerging threats and opportunities that may be manifesting in new ways which, if realised, may warrant changes to policies and strategies in the medium to long term (Gov UK, 2017). As noted in the introduction to our previous horizon scan, Research for Parliament: Preparing for a changing world, the future is inherently unpredictable because a single future event, such as a global pandemic, can alter or reverse present trends. COVID-19 is the third such major shock to complex, connected global human systems in the 21st Century, following the 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States and the 2008 global financial crisis. Such shocks produce periods of profound social, economic and environmental change (Hynes et al, 2020). Pandemics are a case of ‘when’ not ‘if’, and have punctuated history, driving long-term, radical changes (Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, 2020). A 2017 report by the United States Northern Command predicted the next global pandemic was likely to be a novel respiratory illness and the subsequent shortages of masks and ventilators (U.S. NORTHCOM, 2017). Such infrequent but fundamentally predictable shocks with severe consequences that can be foreseen adequately are usually referred to as ‘pink flamingos’, as opposed to ‘black swans’, unpredictable rare shocks that cannot be adequately foreseen (Hoffman, 2015). The purpose of horizon scanning is not informing the risk assessment and management of such shocks (Cuhls, 2020), but to support decision-makers in acknowledging and preparing for possible opportunities and challenges (Defra, 2006).

References

Research for Parliament 2021

Experts have helped us identify 30 areas of change to help the UK Parliament prepare for the future.

Research for Parliament 2021: expert acknowledgments

*denotes people and organisations who acted as external reviewers of the briefing.

  • Professor Abigail Marks, University of Stirling *
  • Dr Abigail McQuatters-Gollop, University of Plymouth
  • Professor Achim Dobermann, Rothamsted
  • Dr Adam Roberts, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine *
  • Dr Adam Wright, The British Academy *
  • Aidan Peppin, Ada Lovelace Institute
  • Professor Alan Winfield, University of the West of England Bristol
  • Alex Connor, National Physical Laboratory
  • Dr Alexandra Collins, Imperial College London
  • Alexandra Smyth, Royal Academy of Engineering
  • Amy Cox, Institution of Civil Engineers
  • Professor Andrew Murray, London School of Economics
  • Professor Andrew Webster, University of York
  • Professor Anna Cox, UCL
  • Professor Anna Vignoles, Leverhulme Trust *
  • Professor Annette Boaz, LSHTM *
  • Antony Froggatt, Chatham House
  • Dr Antti Silvast, Norwegian University of Science & Technology *
  • Dr Ben Lee, University of St Andrew’s *
  • Ben Ramster, Institution of Civil Engineers
  • Benedict Dellot, Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation
  • Dr Birgit Schippers, St Mary’s University College Belfast*
  • Brent Mittelstadt , University of Oxford
  • Bryan Edwards, Science and Technology Facilities Council
  • Dr Carl Benedikt Frey, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
  • Caroline Pritchard, National Measurement Laboratory
  • Catherine Foot, Centre for Ageing Better *
  • Centre for Ageing Better *
  • Catherine Wheeler, Information Commissioner’s Office *
  • Dr Charlie Outhwaite, UCL *
  • Cheryl Lloyd, Nuffield Foundation *
  • Dr Chiara Lombardo, Mental Health Foundation *
  • Professor Christian Stadler, Warwick Business School *
  • Christine Corlett Walker, University of Surrey *
  • Dr Claire Kidgell, National Institute for Health Research *
  • Dr Daniel Wheatley, University of Birmingham *
  • Professor Darren Lilleker, Bournemouth University *
  • David Buck, The King’s Fund *
  • David Hawkes, Institution of Civil Engineers
  • Dr David Jenkins, Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust *
  • Dr David Leslie, Alan Turing Institute
  • Dr David Nguyen, National Institute of Economic and Social Research *
  • Deborah Hardoon, What Works Centre for Wellbeing
  • Dr Derry Mercer, NovaBiotics *
  • Professor Diane Coyle, University of Cambridge *
  • Dr Elizabeth Braithwaite , Manchester Metropolitan University *
  • Professor Florencio Travieso, Emlyon Business School *
  • Dr Fredrik Moberg, Stockholm Resilience Centre *
  • Gavin Costigan, Foundation for Science and Technology *
  • Dr Gemma Buckland Merrett , Wellcome Trust *
  • Grace Freeman , Early Intervention Foundation
  • Professor Guido Noto La Diega , University of Stirling
  • Professor Guy Howard, University of Bristol
  • Jack Pilkington, The Royal Society
  • Professor Jakub Bijak, Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton
  • Dr Jane Parry, University of Southampton *
  • Jenny Bird, UCL
  • Jenny Brennan, Ada Lovelace Institute
  • Dr Jessica Pykett, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham
  • Professor Jim Hall, University of Oxford
  • Professor Jim Harris, University of Cranfield *
  • Professor Jim Watson, UCL *
  • Dr Jo Blanden, University of Surrey *
  • Jo O’Riordan, techUK
  • Jocelyn Kiley, Pew Research Center *
  • Dr Joeri Rogelj, Imperial College *
  • Professor John Dearing, University of Southampton *
  • Dr John Hudson, IFST
  •  Jonathan Kaye, Education Endowment Foundation *
  • Professor Jonathan Leake, University of Sheffield *
  • Joy Aston, Royal Academy of Engineering
  • Professor Jules Pretty, University of Essex *
  • Julia Cooke, Information Commissioner’s Office *
  • Professor Karen Johnson , Unversity of Durham *
  • Kate Cox, RAND
  • Kathleen Henehan, Resolution Foundation *
  • Kristiana Wrixon , ACEVO
  • Lara Macdonald, Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation
  • Dr Laura Bellingan, Royal Society of Biology *
  • Laura Childs, Institute of Physics
  • Laura Riley, HFEA
  • Dr Laura Shapiro, Aston University *
  • Laurie Smith, Nesta *
  • Lee Rainie, Pew Research Center *
  • Professor Leslie Willcocks, London School of Economics
  • Lígia Teixeira , Centre for Homelessness Impact
  • Lisa-Maria Neudert, Oxford Internet Institute *
  • Dr Liz Fletcher, University of Edinburgh *
  • Professor Lorna Woods, University of Essex *
  • Louis Coffaitt, Open Innovation Team
  • Professor Louise Manning, Royal Agricultural University *
  • Lucy Thorpe, Mental Health Foundation *
  • Professor Marc Jones, Manchester Metropolitan University *
  • Dr Maria Pregnolato, University of Bristol
  • Dr Marion Oswald, Northumbria University
  • Mark Franks, Nuffield Foundation *
  • Dr Martin Robson, Strategy and Security Institute, University of Exeter
  • Martin Smith , Wellcome Trust *
  • Martyn Thomas, Gresham College
  • Dr Matthew Hannon, University of Strathclyde *
  • Max Rutherford , Association of Charitable Foundations
  • Meera Sarma, University of Liverpool
  • Michael Birtwistle, Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation
  • Professor Micharl Gasiorek, University of Sussex *
  • Michelle Sahai , University of Roehampton
  • Professor Mike Brewer, Resolution Foundation *
  • Monica Anderson, Pew Research Center *
  • Dr Natalie Banner, The Wellcome Trust *
  • Professor Nathalie Pettorelli, ZSL *
  • Dr Nathan Archer, Nuffield Foundation *
  • Nerys Thomas, College of Policing
  • Professor Nick Graham, University of Lancaster *
  • Professor Nico Shrijver, Universitet Leiden *
  • Nimmi Patel, techUK
  • Octavia Reeve, Ada Lovelace Institute
  • Oliver Hill-Andrews, ESRC (UKRI)
  • Dr Palitha Konara, University of Sussex *
  • Dr Pamela Ugwudike , University of Southampton
  • Professor Paul Dodds, UCL *
  • Professor Paul Hoskisson, University of Strathclyde *
  • Professor Paula Surridge, Bristol University *
  • Peter Burlinson , BBSRC Head of Strategy: Rules of Life | UKRI-BBSRC
  • Professor Professor Colin Anthony Taylor, University of Bristol
  • Professor Rachel Griffith, University of Manchester
  • Dr Rachel Ward, IFST *
  • Raj Patel, University of Essex *
  • Professor Rebecca Fitzgerald, University of Cambridge *
  • Reema Patel, Ada Lovelace Institute
  • Professor Richard Bardgett, University of Manchester *
  • Professor Richard Gilbertson, University of Cambridge *
  • Dr Richard Kino, UKRI – BBSRC *
  • Dr Richard Whittle, Future Economies University Research Centre, Manchester Metropolitan University
  • Professor Rick Stafford, University of Bournemouth *
  • Rob Davies , UCL Public Affairs and Policy Impact Lead and Head of the CLOSER COVID-19 Taskforce
  • Professor Roberto La Ragione, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey*
  • Professor Roy Harrison, University of Birmingham
  • Ruth Maisey, Nuffield Foundation *
  • Dr Sarah Bonetti, Education Policy Institute *
  • Dr Sarah Royston, Anglia Ruskin *
  • Professor Shane Johnson, UCL
  • Simone Boekelaar , Head of Horizon Scanning | Innovate UK
  • Stephanie Garfield-Birkbeck, National Institute for Health Research *
  • Professor Susan Grant-muller, University of Leeds
  • Professor Tamara Galloway, University of Exeter
  • Tariq Khokar, The Wellcome Trust *
  • Professor Tim Jackson , University of Surrey *
  • Dr Tim Newbold, UCL *
  • Dr Tina Joshi:, University of Plymouth *
  • Dr Tom Dolan, UCL
  • Tom Hughes , National Infrastructure Commission
  • Dr Trudi Martin, Learning and Work Institute *
  • Dr Will Leggett, School of Social Policy, University of Birmingham
  • Mind *
  • Innovate UK *
  • Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure