Although climate change has been recognised as a national security threat, the wide range of global physical, social and economic risks are not fully accounted for in relevant decision-making frameworks. For example, climate change risks, driven by extreme weather conditions, may cascade into other interlinked global supply chains of the food, mining and logistics sectors. Research relevant to quantifying these risks and identifying uncertainties, include machine learning, AI, data analysis, complexity science and social sciences are needed to plan for such climate contingencies.

The POSTnote on this subject will summarise the forecasting and strategic tools needed to identify and measure climate risks and provide early warnings for climate security related tipping points. It will also outline what is required to carry out climate security risk assessments to identify where resilience needs safeguarding.

Work on this briefing will commence in May 2022.

To contribute expertise or literature, please e-mail Ben Clarke

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POST work programme

View the approved work programme and find out how to contribute as an expert.

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