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Following measures by the UK Government, a survey was conducted on the 18 of March to assess public attitudes. 77% of respondents were worried about an outbreak and while 93% reported taking protective measures, only 50% were avoiding social events, 36% were avoiding public transport, and 31% were avoiding going out. A study on the global impact of COVID-19 estimated that an unmitigated epidemic would infect 7.0 billion out of the world’s 7.8 billion people. This would lead to 40 million global deaths in 2020. The latest modeling estimates that as of 27 about 4% of the population of the UK has been infected with coronavirus.The UK has strengthened capacity of the NHS to deal with COVID-19 by building field hospitals, but there is still a shortage of intensive care beds and intensive care nurses. Various testing strategies are being explored for healthcare workers and the wider community. Testing each case and their contacts might require as many as 60,000 tests per day.

What can Wuhan tell us about the COVID-19 pandemic? How might different suppression and mitigation strategies affect coronavirus transmission? This breakdown of the Imperial College models is part of our rapid response content on COVID-19. This article will be updated as the research progresses.

On 20th March, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) released the evidence behind the government response to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This series of short articles summarises these 32 documents. You can view all our reporting on this topic under COVID-19. This article goes over the research used to develop early COVID-19 models which in turn informed the thinking of SAGE. High profile models from Imperial College London will be detailed in Part 2.

  • Rapid response

    On 20th March, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) released the evidence behind the government response to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This series of short articles summarises these 32 documents. You can view all our reporting on this topic under COVID-19. This article covers the effectiveness of measures such as school closures and mass gathering. It goes over different scenarios and what models predict for the UK.

  • Rapid response

    On 20th March, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) released the evidence behind the government response to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This series of short articles summarises these 32 documents. You can view all our reporting on this topic under COVID-19. This article goes over insights from behavioural science such as the risk of public disorder and adherence to household isolation.

  • Rapid response

    On 20th March, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) released the evidence behind the government response to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This series of short articles summarises these 32 documents. You can view all our reporting on this topic under COVID-19. This article goes over proposed non-pharmaceutical interventions. These include social and behavioural interventions such as school closures, home isolation, quarantine, and social distancing. This article summarises 4 SAGE reports.

  • Rapid response

    On 20th March, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) released the evidence behind the government response to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This series of short articles summarises these 32 documents. You can view all our reporting on this topic under COVID-19. This article goes over the key epidemiological terms used in the COVID-19 response.