Table of contents
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS85
Overview
Contributors to the 2024 POST horizon scan raised issues about lower levels of educational attainment among disadvantaged pupils and the impact of selective education on further education opportunities (such as university) and employment.
As education is a devolved matter, this horizon scan article mainly focuses on compulsory and higher education in England. It considers academic performance and interventions from early years through to university level, as well as how educational inequalities translate into employment outcomes.
Educational attainment and the disadvantage gap
Educational attainment gaps refer to differences in academic achievement between groups of people. Attainment gaps have been documented by economic disadvantage, ethnicity, disability, gender, whether a child has been in care, or has special educational needs and/or disability (SEND).[1],[2]
There are long-term inequalities at every stage of education. Research shows that educational attainment gaps are also linked to other life outcomes including employment, income, health and criminality.2,[3]
Since 2019, progress in closing gaps between pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds and their more affluent peers has stalled, and the gap has started to widen in the early years and secondary phases.[4]
At all phases of schooling, the attainment gap for disadvantaged pupils has grown since the pandemic.[5] As of 2024, it is the widest in a decade for 11–16-year-olds, and remains higher than pre-pandemic levels for 5-year-olds.[6] The gap continues to widen at key stage 4 (school leaving age), and while the attainment gap for those finishing primary school narrowed slightly in the past year, it remains wider than it was a decade ago.[7],[8]
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) estimated that, in the academic year 2022/23, less than half of disadvantaged pupils are meeting expectations in reading, writing and maths at the end of primary school.[9] At GCSE level, 43% of pupils eligible for Free School Meals earn a standard pass (grade 4) in English and Maths, compared with 72% of their more affluent peers.[10] Only 29% of pupils eligible for Free School Meals at age 15 later progressed to university, compared with 49% of their better-off peers.[11]
Research has also established a relationship between disadvantage, school absence and educational attainment.[12],[13] According to a 2023 report from the Education Endowment Foundation, 75% of 300 surveyed schools cited attendance as the main attainment barrier for socio-economically disadvantaged pupils.[14]
Policy initiatives designed to address widening gaps have included community ‘early years’ support to give children “the best start in life” before they begin school.[15] For example, the 1998 government initiative Sure Start provided early education, health, and family support through local community centres. In 2024, analysis from the IfS found that children who lived near a Sure Start centre performed 0.8 grades better at GCSE level than those who lived further away.[16] For children from low-income households eligible for Free School Meals, living near a centre improved GCSE performance by three grades. In 2023, the government announced a Family Hubs and Start for Life programme, which will incorporate learning from Sure Start.[17]
Other examples of policy initiatives include London Challenge, and the pupil premium. While positive benefits have been reported for interventions, assessing their impact can be lengthy and complicated when measuring long-term outcomes.[18] Some reports suggest that more evidence is needed to judge the effectiveness of individual policies that collectively cost around £60 billion each year.[19]
Selective education and employment outcomes
In 2023/24, 9.9% of England’s pupils attended an independent school.[20] Fees range from £12,000 to £53,500 per year, making the most expensive and prestigious selective schools inaccessible to most families.[21]
Those who are privately educated are often over-represented in the most senior positions in the professions with the highest renumerations. [22],[23] The Social Mobility Commission refers to this as an “elite” class formation, consisting of 27% who were independently educated and attended a Russell Group university, and 17% who attended Oxford or Cambridge.22,23
Challenges and opportunities
During the horizon scan, contributors called for long-term, sustained, and ambitious strategies for interventions to enable all children to access high-quality schooling, which would open choices for higher education and enhance employment opportunities.
Access to high quality education
Horizon scan contributors highlighted that addressing access issues is critical for fairness and enables the economy to make the most of the talent available.[24]
Contributors identified educational isolation as a particular risk. This refers to localities that are rural, coastal, formerly industrial, and far from the proximity of resources, and/or where schools have more disadvantaged pupils, requiring high-skilled and specialist teachers.[25]
Contributors proposed that UK-wide policies could improve and level access to high quality education provision.[26] Additionally, devolution enables targeted and specific interventions. For example, Scotland has introduced the Education: National Improvement Framework and Improvement Plan 2024 that has shown decreases in the attainment gap,[27] and the 2022 Curriculum for Wales has an explicit commitment to equity and inclusion in the Welsh context.[28]
Appeal and access to higher education
Participation rates in higher education have increased annually since 2002,[29] including among first generation participants.[30]
Universities UK highlight that first-generation students are more likely to opt for less selective universities and are more likely to rely on financial support from the state.36
The horizon scan contributors suggested that, as the cost-of-living increases, including for student accommodation, the appeal and opportunity of higher education for disadvantaged groups may be negatively impacted.
Social mobility and the “class ceiling”
Social class is associated with those most likely to occupy high-paid and senior roles in employment, a phenomenon referred to as the “class ceiling”.[31] Evidence suggests that people from working class backgrounds are less likely to reach the same levels of seniority, esteem, or income as those from more privileged backgrounds, even with similar educational qualifications.[32],[33],[34]
Academic contributors highlighted that, in addition to closing educational attainment gaps, there is a need for a cultural shift in employer and university recruitment processes to support widening participation, inclusion and high expectation career ambitions.[35],[36]
Engaging the education workforce
Horizon scan contributors suggested that lifting morale and valuing the teaching workforce is an opportunity to improve the quality of state education.[37]
Pay and working conditions in the education sector have prompted trade union action in recent years, especially concerning inequality gaps associated with class, ethnicity, and gender.23
The 2023 Education Committee inquiry into teacher recruitment, retention, and training found that teachers did not feel valued, which was a factor for poor retention figures in state schools where the most disadvantaged children attend.[38]
Technology
Personalised adaptive learning technologies may enhance access to education, and improve attainment, such as for children with SEND.[39] Technological advances, including the development of generative AI tools, are becoming important in education, and for employment prospects (see PN 712).
However, unequal access to technology and opportunities to develop a digital skillset may also risk exacerbating educational inequality.[40],[41]
Key uncertainties
Horizon scan contributors highlighted that the success of long-term plans for education interventions to address attainment gaps and access to high quality education is dependent on funding, and effective timely intervention. The effectiveness of interventions can be difficult to measure, and often require studies over many years to evaluate long-term benefits.18 Robust long-term evaluation is not always possible if there are multiple policy changes within that period.
There are also uncertainties about funding, resources, and capacity to address educational inequalities. In the Autumn Budget 2024, the government announced the application of VAT and business rates to private school fees.[42] This revenue has previously been pledged to fund the recruitment of 6,500 specialist teachers. However, delivery of this pledge will also likely be influenced by a pay offer and addressing dissatisfaction with working conditions.[43],[44]
Horizon scan contributors highlighted that, in higher education, financial instability and proposed fee rises will have consequences for the attractiveness of higher education as an option for prospective students from disadvantaged backgrounds, particularly if financial assistance for disadvantaged students is not re-introduced.49,[45]
Key questions for Parliament
- How can satisfactory levels of pupil attainment be maintained, while closing the widening disadvantage gap?
- What is the feasibility and potential for re-introducing successful early years interventions to mitigate the consequences of social class and other inequalities?
- Will a systematic review of the effectiveness of former interventions be commissioned?
- Could the pupil premium be expanded to include a wider demographic of disadvantaged learners?
- How can children be supported to break the “class ceiling”, in both education and job opportunities?
- How can access to technology be facilitated to address educational inequalities?
- How can we learn from policies in other countries to address the issue of educational inequalities?
References
[1] Education Endowment Foundation (2018). Closing the Attainment Gap.
[2] Crenna-Jennings, W. (2018). Key drivers of the disadvantage gap: literature review. Education Policy Institute.
[3] Deaton, A. (2024). Dimensions of Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review. Oxford Open Economics.
[4] Education Policy Institute (2024). Annual report 2024: Executive Summary.
[5] Hobbs, A. & Mutebi, N. (2021). Inequalities in education and attainment gaps. Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology.
[6] Education Policy Institute (2024). Social Mobility and Vulnerable Learners Annual Report 2024.
[7] National Audit Office (2024). Improving educational outcomes for disadvantaged children.
[8] Education Policy Institute (2023). Annual Report.
[9] Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024). The state of education: what awaits the next government?
[10] Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024). The state of education: what awaits the next government?
[11] DfE (2023). Widening participation in higher education.
[12] Long, R. & Roberts, N. (2024). School attendance in England. House of Commons Library.
[13] House of Commons Education Committee (2023). Persistent absence and support for disadvantaged pupils. UK Parliament.
[14] Education Endowment Foundation (2023). Attendance and reading key barriers to disadvantaged pupils’ progress say three in four schools.
[15] UK Government (2022). Ofsted: Early years. GOV.UK.
[16] Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024). Sure Start greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results.
[17] Department of Health and Social Care & Department for Education (2023). Family Hubs and Start for Life programme. GOV.UK.
[18] Bate, A. & Foster, D. (2017). Sure Start (England). House of Commons Library.
[19] National Audit Office (2024). Improving educational outcomes for disadvantaged children.
[20] Department for Education (2024). Schools, Pupils and their characteristics 2023/24. GOV.UK.
[21] Maisuria, A. (2022). Selective schooling for mystifying social class, neoliberalism and alternatives in Education, Equality and Human Rights: Issues of Gender, ‘Race’, Sexuality, Disability and Social Class (5th ed.), Chapter 10. Routledge.
[22] Social Mobility Commission and Sutton Trust (2019). Elitist Britain 2019: the educational pathways of Britain’s leading people.
[23] Friedman, S. et al. (2017). Social mobility, the class pay gap and intergenerational worklessness: New insights from the labour force survey. Social Mobility Commission.
[24] Department for Education (2022). Opportunity Areas Insight Guide: Place-base Working. GOV.UK.
[25] Ehren, M. et al. (2023). Place-based disparities faced by stuck schools in England: a contextual understanding of low performance and the role of inspection outcomes. School Effectiveness and School Improvement, Vol 34(4), 401–418.
[26] Azpitarte, F., and Holt, L. (2023). Failing children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities in England: New evidence of poor outcomes and a postcode lottery at the Local Authority level at Key Stage 1. British Educational Research Journal, Vol 50, 414–437.
[27] Scottish Government (2023). Education: National Improvement Framework and improvement plan 2024.
[28] Maisuria, A. (2024). Comparing the school curriculum across the UK. House of Commons Library.
[29] Department for Education (2023). Participation measures in higher education Academic year 2021/22. GOV.UK.
[30] Universities UK (2024). Stats behind the stories.
[31] Friedman et al. (2015). Breaking the ‘Class’ Ceiling? Social Mobility into Britain’s Elite Occupations. The Sociological Review, Vol 63(2), 259-289.
[32] Burke, C. et al. (2019). Navigating the graduate labour market: the impact of social class on student understandings of graduate careers and the graduate labour market. Studies in Higher Education, Vol 45, 1711–1722.
[33] Waller, R., Ingram, N. & Ward, M. (2018) Higher Education and Social Inequalities: University Admissions, Experiences and Outcomes. British Sociological Association, Routledge.
[34] Friedman et al. (2015). Breaking the ‘Class’ Ceiling? Social Mobility into Britain’s Elite Occupations. The Sociological Review, Vol 63(2), 259-289.
[35] Bolton, P. & Lewis, J. (2024). Equality of access and outcomes in higher education in England. House of Commons Library.
[36] Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (2024). Social mobility in the workplace: Removing the ‘class ceiling’. CIPD.
[37] National Education Union (2024). All change at the top. Lead.
[38] Education Committee, House of Commons (2024). Teacher recruitment, training and retention report. UK Parliament.
[39] Felix, J. & Webb, L. (2024). Use of artificial intelligence in education delivery and assessment. Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology.
[40] Department for Education (2023). Generative AI in education Call for Evidence: summary of responses. GOV.UK.
[41] McKean, P. (2023). Without intervention, AI could widen the digital divide for students. Jisc.
[42] HM Treasury (2024). Autumn Budget 2024. GOV.UK.
[43] Department for Education (2023). Education Secretary begins push to recruit 6,500 new teachers. GOV.UK.
[44] Evennett, H. (2024). King’s Speech 2024: Education. House of Lords Library.
[45] Cumiskey, L. & Dyson, J. (2024). Pledge for 6,500 new teachers may not be delivered for years. Schools Week.
