Food systems, food security and supply chains

Alistair Dillon; Jonathan Wentworth

Overview

The horizon scan contributors identified food systems, food security and supply chains as being relevant to Parliament over the next 5 years.

Food systems include all the elements involved in producing, preparing and consuming food as well as their economic, environmental and health effects (PN 702).[1] The OECD has identified a triple challenge facing food systems: to ensure food security and nutrition for a growing population; to support the livelihoods of those people working in the food supply chain; and to do so in an environmentally sustainable way (healthier, greener and fairer).[2]

At its heart, food security is a measure of people’s access to safe and nutritious food (House of Commons Library, Insight).[3]^,[4] It depends on several factors, including the availability and affordability of healthy foods, such as fresh fruit and vegetables.[5] The UK Food Security Report 2021 identified five themes relevant to UK food security: global food availability; UK food supply sources; food supply chain resilience; food security at the household level; and food safety and consumer confidence.[6]

The UK’s food supply chain has been tested recently by the covid-19 pandemic (POST Rapid Response), inflation in the costs of primary production, disruption to imports and agricultural inputs due to geopolitical conflicts, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, access to labour and concerns over fairness in the food supply chain (House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee).[7] It is increasingly affected by unreliable and volatile growing conditions as climate patterns change.[8]

Challenges and opportunities

The horizon scan identified several challenges in this area.

The UK food system is highly dependent on food imports from climate vulnerable countries, especially for healthy foods like fruits and vegetables (PN 680, CDP-2022-0177).[9] In 2022, the value of UK imports of food, feed and drink was £58.1 billion, and the value of UK exports £24.9 billion. Imports of oils/fats and cereals/cereal products are currently increasing.[10]

Shifting towards shorter domestic food supply chains (the sale of food closer to its production) may be an opportunity to increase the profitability of UK farm businesses.[11]^,[12] This may also provide resilience to the impacts of extreme climate events on food supply chains that cascade across international borders.[13]^,[14],[15]

Climate adaptation also has infrastructure implications for complex networks of processing, packaging, distribution, storage and transportation activities.[16]^,[17]For example, increased refrigerated transportation and storage may be required to adapt to rising temperatures,[18] but the horizon scan identified that emissions from food refrigeration will also simultaneously need to be reduced.[19]^{,[20],[21],[22],[23],[24]}

The terms of trade agreements could affect the production standards within the UK. For example, if food imports are produced at lower cost in countries with lower animal welfare, animal, plant health and environmental protection standards.[25] Prior to the 2024 General Election, the House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (EFRA) Select Committee was undertaking an inquiry into ‘UK trade policy: food and agriculture’, which was considering the cumulative impact of the UK’s post Brexit trade deals on the UK’s agri-food sector.[26]

For the food supply chain, a challenge is that of fairness. The latest Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA) annual survey of suppliers showed that the number of suppliers experiencing an issue with application of the Groceries Supply Code of Practice (GSCoP) improved after the GCA strongly criticised tsupermarkets behaviour in 2023.[27] [28]

The EFRA Select Committee was inquiring into Fairness in the Food Supply Chain when the General Election was called.[29] An issue considered by the Committee was producers’ relationships with processors and manufacturers in the supply chain, which are not covered by the GSCoP, as the GSCoP covers only those suppliers who contract directly with retailers. A recent development in this area was the creation of the Agricultural Supply Chain Adjudicator, which is separate from the GCA and is focused on milk purchase contracts.[30]

The NGO Sustain have called for supply chain regulation to make them fairer for farmers,[31] and for regional structural funds to invest in more infrastructure that could shorten chains, getting more value to farmers.[32]

A challenge recognised in the independent review of the National Food Strategy was that responsibility for elements of food policy is split across multiple government departments. It identified the need for clear, long-term targets, ongoing political attention, and a joined-up approach not only within government, but across the food industry and communities.[33]

A further challenge identified by contributors to global food security is that of plant disease pandemics. Outbreaks are increasing, exacerbated by climate change, transmission of pests within the global food system and the evolution of new pesticide resistant lineages. [34]^,[35],[36] Researchers argue that current agricultural systems rely on a limited number of elite varieties of 15 crop species and widely used chemical control products (PB 51), and suggest a wider diversity of crop species should be used.[37]^{,[38],[39],[40],[41],[42]}

Despite the range of challenges identified, the horizon scan revealed some opportunities. For example, addressing the triple challenge of food security, resilient supply chains and environmental sustainability through transformation of the food system. Measures could, for example, seek to help to achieve three of the UN Sustainable Development Goals: 2 (Zero Hunger), 3 (Good Health and Wellbeing) and 15 (Life on Land).[43]^{,[44],[45],[46]}

For food security, contributors suggested opportunities arise from nutritional life cycle assessment (nLCA), whereby the nutritional value and environmental impact of a particular farming practice are taken into account to assess the optimum ways to produce nutritious food sustainably.[47] However, the effectiveness and accuracy of ecolabelling are contested by other researchers and organisations (PN 702).

Other key opportunities relating to the food system include the role of innovation and technology in agriculture and alternative foods and balancing agricultural production and environmental objectives.

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The food system, food security and food supply chains have faced key challenges over recent years — such as a global health emergency and armed warfare — demonstrating their vulnerability to unexpected shocks (PN 626).[48],[49] A key uncertainty looking forward is what shocks may transpire to challenge the food system globally and the future state and resilience of UK farming businesses to them.
A challenge that is known is that of climate change, but the impact of that is deeply uncertain, and will depend to a degree on the actions taken to both mitigate and adapt to climate change.
A transition to a healthier, fairer and greener food system would require better understanding of the interconnectedness of food systems and how decisions made in part of the system have beneficial or negative feedback effects on other parts of the system (PN 702). There is also policy uncertainty in the UK about the government’s approach to food policy and its relationship to policies such as trade.

Key questions for Parliament

Given the identified unknowns, how resilient is the UK’s food system and what additional action could be taken to build that resilience? What additional actions could be led from the government to help decision makers in the food system to build resilience?
What progress is the UK making against its five food security themes, including household access to affordable and nutritious food? What action is the government planning to improve the coherence of food policy across government?
To support fairness in the food supply chain, how will the work of the Agricultural Supply Chain Adjudicator link with that of the Groceries Chain Adjudicator? What further action can be taken to strengthen fairness throughout the food supply chain?

References

[1] Food Systems are complex and dynamic systems made up of networks of decision-makers, natural processes and human activities. They span all processes and activities involved in food production, processing, packaging, storage, distribution, consumption, and food loss and waste. These systems generate economic and nutrition benefits and interact with the environment in multiple ways (PN 702).

[2] OECD, Food Systems [Accessed 16 August 2024]

[3] International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Food Security [Accessed 16 August 2024].

[4] Mironova, A. (2022). Moving beyond food banks. University of Sheffield.

[5] Sustain. (2024). Bridging the Gap

[6] Defra. (2021). United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021 [Accessed 16 August 2024].

[7] Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, Food Security, 28 July 2023.

[8] Lords Library research briefing, Impact of climate change and biodiversity loss on food security, 1 September 2022.

[9] UK Health Security Agency. (2023). Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK.

[10] Defra. (2024). Accredited official statistics Chapter 13: Overseas trade

[11] NICRE. (2024). Farm business performance, marketing and adaptation strategies, National Innovation Centre for Rural Enterprise, State of Rural Enterprise Report No 8.

[12] National Innovation Centre for Rural Enterprise. Foundational infrastructure for short food supply chains: building resilience capacity for distributive food economies (2024)

[13] Challinor, A., et al. (2021). Climate Change Risk Assessment 3 Chapter 7 – International dimensions. UK Climate Risk

[14] Rojas-Reyes, J. et al. (2024). Disruptions in the food supply chain: A literature review. Heliyon Volume 10, Issue 14, e34730

[15] Davis, K. et al. (2021). Towards food supply chain resilience to environmental shocks. Nature Food volume 2, pg. 54–65

[16] Oyedijo, A., et al. (2024). Here’s how we make the $9 trillion global food supply chain sustainable. World Economic Forum.

[17] Poo, M., et al. (2024). Global food supply chain resilience assessment: A case in the United Kingdom. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 181, 104018

[18] Tchonkouang, R., et al. (2024). Assessing the vulnerability of food supply chains to climate change-induced disruptions. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 920, 171047

[19] Cool Coalition. (2021). National Cooling Action Plan Methodology.

[20] Coombs, C., et al. (2017). Long-term red meat preservation using chilled and frozen storage combinations: A review Meat Science, 125, 84–94

[21] Crippa, M., et al. (2021). Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions Nature Food, 2(3), 198–209

[22] Fikiin, K., et al. (2017). Refrigerated warehouses as intelligent hubs to integrate renewable energy in industrial food refrigeration and to enhance power grid sustainability. Trends in Food Science and Technology, 60, 96–103;

[23] Ghoulem, M., et al. (2019). Greenhouse design and cooling technologies for sustainable food cultivation in hot climates: Review of current practice and future status. Biosystems Engineering, 183, 121–150

[24] Heard, B., et al. (2019). Potential changes in greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerated supply chain introduction in a developing food system. Environmental Science and Technology, 53(1), 251–260

[25] Compassion in World Farming, Greener UK, RSPCA, Sustain, Which?, WWF. (2022). Safeguarding the UK’s food and farming standards in trade: Lessons from the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement

[26] Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, Inquiry into UK trade policy: food and agriculture (2023-4)

[27] Quinn, I. (2023). Groceries Code Adjudicator accuses supermarkets of ‘warfare’ on suppliers. The Grocer.

[28] Groceries Code Adjudicator, Improved treatment of grocery suppliers despite poor Amazon performance (11 July 2024).

[29] Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, Inquiry into Fairness in the Food Supply Chain (2023-4) [Accessed 16 August 2024].

[30] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, How to make a complaint to ASCA (8 July 2024).

[31] European Commission. (2022). Food Barons 2022 – Crisis Profiteering, Digitalization and Shifting Power

[32] Jack, L. et al. (2022). Unpicking food prices: Where does your food pound go, and why do farmers get so little? Sustain.

[33] National Food Strategy. (2021). The Plan (July 2021).

[34] Ristaino, Jean B. et al, “The persistent threat of emerging plant disease pandemics to global food security”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Vol 118 No 23, 21 May 2021.

[35] Singh, B. et al. (2023). Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward. Nature Reviews Microbiology, volume 21, 640–656 7

[36] Mwangi, R, et al. (2023). Selected emerging and reemerging plant pathogens affecting the food basket: A threat to food security. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, Volume 14, 100827

[37] Gai, Y., et al. (2024). Plant Disease: A Growing Threat to Global Food Security. Agronomy, 14(8), 1615

[38] Fones, H. et al. (2020). Threats to global food security from emerging fungal and oomycete crop pathogens. Nature Food volume 1, 332–342

[39] Zsögön, A. et al. (2022). Enhancing crop diversity for food security in the face of climate uncertainty. The Plant Journal, Volume 109, Issue 2

[40] Benton, T., et al. (2021). Food system impacts on biodiversity loss Three levers for food system transformation in support of nature. Chatham House

[41] Ye, C., et al. (2021). Orphan Crops and their Wild Relatives in the Genomic Era. Molecular Plant, Volume 14, Issue 1, 27-39

[42] Dawson, I., et al. (2019). The role of genetics in mainstreaming the production of new and orphan crops to diversify food systems and support human nutrition. New Phytologist 224: 37–54

[43] Bhagwat, Shonil. (2022). Catalyzing transformative futures in food and farming for global sustainability. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 6, article no. 1009020. (28 October 2022).

[44] Sustain. (2013). Sustainable food

[45] Food Ethics Council. Sustainable food systems: How does the UK measure up?

[46] Economist Impact. Food Sustainability Index: Interactive World Map

[47] McAuliffe, G.A. et al, A commentary on key methodological developments related to nutritional life cycle assessment (nLCA) generated throughout a 6-year strategic scientific programme (June 2023).

[48] Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, Food Security, 28 July 2023

[49] Commons Library research briefing, CDP-2022/0074, Food Security

Photo by: Nick Page on Unsplash

Food systems, food security and supply chains

Table of contents

Overview

Challenges and opportunities

Key uncertainties/unknowns

Key questions for Parliament

Related documents

References

Horizon Scan 2024