Housing: demographic and environmental trends

Emma Cary; Laura Webb

Overview

Contributors to the horizon scan identified links between housing, demographics and climate change as relevant to Parliament over the next 2-5 years.

Challenges and opportunities

Housing an ageing population

There is an under-supply of housing in England.[1] Stakeholders have noted a particular shortage of suitable housing for the UK’s ageing population.[2][3][4][5][6] In 2022, the House of Lords Built Environment Committee inquiry into Meeting the UK’s housing demand recommended that “changes in age demographics should be reflected in the types of new homes built”.[7] The National Housing Federation stated that 38,000 new homes for older people would be required in England annually to meet growing demand.[8]

Suitable housing may include step-free access, single-level living, safety, and fall prevention. Stakeholders have expressed support for changes to laws that would mandate the improved accessibility of new homes, which would also benefit other groups, such as disabled people.[9] A 2015 government review observed that a large majority of older people live in mainstream housing.[10][11] Stakeholders note that older people may need support with home adaptations to help them stay for longer in their homes.[12] Experts note that it can be difficult for older people to pay for adaptation, and to find information on how to adapt their homes.[13] Countries such as the Netherlands have pioneered innovative approaches to alternative housing and care for older people, including multifunctional complexes.[14]

In 2023, a report by the Chief Medical Officer observed that in the UK, millions of older people live in homes that are “cold, damp, prone to overheating, unsafe, or unsuitable for their needs.”[15] In 2021, the Building Research Establishment group estimated the cost to the NHS of treating people affected by poor housing was £1.4bn per year. Experts have flagged the risk that a lack of suitable housing may exacerbate inequalities.[16]

Local Planning Authorities include policies in local plans on how to meet housing needs, including for older people.[17][18][19][20] A 2020 British Property Federation report called for a national housing strategy for older people, and for prioritising projects that align with climate change targets.[21]

Housing and the climate

The UK is legally committed to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.[22][23][24] A 2024 review stated that emissions reductions had to speed up to meet net zero targets.[25][26][27] Greenhouse gas emissions may come from energy needed to run a building, or carbon from a building’s materials, structure, and supply chain.

Actions to reduce housing-related emissions include retrofitting existing homes, improving energy efficiency, decarbonising heating systems and energy supply, providing financial incentives, and implementing new building standards and regulations. Some stakeholders suggest that public support and behavioural change are important for a successful green transition.[28][29][30]

Currently, net zero targets account for the operational emissions of housing, and not carbon arising from construction activities, although many stakeholders advocate for this to change.[31][32]

A range of government incentives have sought to promote retrofitting measures. In the 2021 Net Zero Strategy, the then government set an ambition that, by 2035, all new heating appliances installed in homes would be low carbon technologies. Also in 2021, the government published a Heat and Buildings Strategy.[33] The current government said that it intends to publish a Warm Homes Plan in 2025.[34][35]

Commentators have observed potential social, economic, environmental and health benefits to retrofit,[36] such as increased environmental comfort and lower energy bills. Stakeholders have noted that retrofits can impact indoor air quality[37] and health, making additional ventilation measures necessary.[38][39]

In 2019, the Climate Change Committee estimated that 29 million British homes would need retrofitting by 2050.[40][41][42]

Challenges include:

regulatory uncertainty[43]
the lack of a national retrofit test centre, for assessing new products
skills gaps[44][45][46]
limited or unreliable retrofit information in the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) database[47]
short lifespan of retrofit products, requiring early replacement[48]
underperformance and unintended consequences of retrofits[49]
lack of public understanding and trust[50][51][52]
the need to consider other housing aspects, such as safety[53]
disruption caused by retrofits to residents[54]

Additionally, the high costs of retrofit may be off-putting, particularly the upfront costs.[55][56]Costs may be passed on to tenants through rent.[57][58]

Some stakeholders have stated that energy cost savings do not cover the initial costs of retrofit to housing associations. Amongst other ideas, they suggest grant funding to support housing associations with costs.[59]

Academics also noted progress from the roll-out of energy efficiency standards for social landlords in Scotland.[60][61][62]

Different areas may also have different needs and face different challenges.[63][64] Stakeholders have noted the impact that labour shortages, particularly in London and the south of England, have on housing plans, delivery, and the net zero transition.

Experts have stated that the green transition requires new regulations and standards. For example, that cooling and heating of homes, and risks posed by flooding, need consideration. In recent years, building regulations have been updated with the aim of addressing overheating in new homes.[65][66][67]

The previous Government consulted on a Future Homes Standard to apply to all new homes in England from 2025. The standard aimed to “ensure that new-build homes are future-proofed with low-carbon heating and high levels of energy efficiency”.[68][69][70][71] In 2021, some stakeholders stated that a proposed implementation roadmap for the Future Homes Standard was not ambitious enough.[72][73][74]

In 2024, the Climate Change Committee noted that the UK had met all its emission reduction targets to date, but that pace had slowed in 2023, with some relevant policies reversed or delayed. In 2025, the Climate Change Committee published its advice to Government on the 7^th Carbon Budget, including on housing and energy efficiency. It stated that, in future, the vast majority of home heating is likely to be electric (mostly through heat pumps and low carbon heat networks).[75]

Opportunities

Academics identify various opportunities for policymakers to adapt homes for an ageing population,[76][77] retrofit homes to support net zero targets, and improve their resilience to climate change,[78][79][80] including that:

technology could play a role in the adaptation of buildings, for example how smart or digital tech can support older people in their homes[81]
modern methods of construction, and lessons learned from their use, could provide sustainable buildings which are suitable for older people[82]
regulations or standards may support the delivery of sustainable buildings
education and engagement could increase public support, trust and understanding of the green transition
new financial products (e.g. Property Linked Finance) might help to cover the costs of home energy efficient improvements[83]
whole-life carbon assessments may be a comprehensive approach to achieving building-related emissions reductions[84][85]

Stakeholders have flagged the link between skills and achieving net zero,[86][87]noting that decarbonising buildings can help stimulate the economy and create jobs.[88]

For further information, see articles on Net zero and the UK’s historic building stock and Community based climate change approaches.

Key uncertainties/ unknowns

In July 2024, the UK Government announced plans to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years.[89] It is currently unclear how these plans may address the housing needs of older people, and deliver housing adapted to climate change.[90][91][92]

Housing needs evolve over time, and housing lasts for generations, creating uncertainties for housing stakeholders in planning future-proof housing. It is difficult to know the number, type and location of homes required for older people. It is difficult to understand which climate and environmental pressures will affect specific areas.

Stakeholders also note uncertainty about the impact of the National Energy System Operator in taking a ‘whole system perspective across energy vectors’,[93][94] and the GB Energy Bill, introduced in the 2024 King’s Speech and part way through its passage through Parliament.[95]

Key questions for Parliament

How can the supply of housing suitable for an ageing population meet demand, and support be targeted at areas with the greatest need and impact?
How can housing be made energy-efficient and resilient to climate change, while addressing regional differences and inequalities?
How can approaches be made relevant to all housing tenures (including social, rented, and owner-occupied housing) and how can lessons be shared between sectors?[96]
How can barriers to adopting existing green technologies, knowledge, and best practice be identified and overcome, and how can these be effectively shared across the housing sector and with the public to gain support?
How can local government ensure housing is fit for purpose and adaptable to future climate and population pressures?[97][98][99]
What role might addressing housing challenges play in creating jobs and stimulating economic growth?

References

[1] However, the Resolution Foundation think tank noted in 2024 that 71% of households live in under-occupied homes with spare bedrooms.

[2] Belcher, E. et al (2021), Third Age City: Housing for Older Londoners. Centre for London.

[3] King, E. et al (no date) Future options for housing and care: Improving housing that facilitates care and support for older people. Social Care Institute for Excellence.

[4] National Housing Federation (2022) Building homes for an aging population. National Housing Federation.

[5] Campbell A. et al (2024) Housing for older people in Scotland: A call for discussion. UK Collaborative Centre For Housing Evidence.

[6] House of Commons Library (2021) Housing an ageing population: a reading list. UK Parliament.

[7] House of Lords Built Environment Committee (2022) Meeting the UK’s housing demand – Committees – UK Parliament. UK Parliament.

[8] National Housing Federation (2022) Building homes for an aging population. National Housing Federation.

[9] Centre for Aging Better (2024) The missing 250,000 homes: Campaigners count the cost of two years of inaction on minimum accessibility standards. Centre for Ageing Better.

[10] UK Government (2015) Future of ageing: adapting homes and neighbourhoods. Gov.uk

[11] Current options for older people with a need for specialist housing include remaining in a home, moving to a retirement home, co-housing or living with family, and living in specialist accommodation (see Belcher E. et al (2021) Third Age City: Housing for older Londoners. Centre for London)

[12] House of Commons Library (2021) Housing an ageing population: a reading list. UK Parliament.

[13] Belcher E. et al (2021) Third Age City: Housing for older Londoners. Centre for London.

[14] Dialog Health (no date) Alternative housing and personal services: exploring Dutch innovations

[15] UK Government (2023) Chief Medical Officer’s annual report 2023: health in an ageing society. Gov.uk. Drawing on Centre for Ageing Better (2020): Centre for Ageing Better, Homes, health and COVID-19. Centre for Ageing Better.

[16] House of Commons Library (2022) The role of homes and buildings in levelling up health and wellbeing. UK Parliament.

[17] House of Commons Library (2024) Calculating housing need in the planning system (England). UK Parliament.

[18] UK Government (no date) National Planning Policy Framework. Gov.uk

[19] House of Commons Library (2024) Calculating housing need in the planning system (England). UK Parliament.

[20] UK Government (2019), Housing for older and disabled people. Gov.uk

[21] British Property Federation with Cushman & Wakefield (2020) BPF – Housing and Care for Older People: Defining the Sector. British Property Federation

[22] UK Government (2021) Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener. Gov.uk

[23] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2024) Enabling green choices for net zero. UK Parliament.

[24] UK Government (online) (2021) Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener. Gov.uk

[25] Climate Change Committee (2024) Progress in reducing emissions 2024 Report to Parliament. Climate Change Committee.

[26] DNV (no date) (online) Energy Transition UK 2024

[27] House of Commons Library (2023) The UK’s plans and progress to reach net zero by 2050. UK Parliament.

[28] Climate Change Committee (2024) The Sixth Carbon Budget: The UK’s path to net zero (PDF)

[29] National Energy System Operator (no date) Future Energy Scenarios (FES)

[30] International Energy Agency (2023) Energy efficiency and behaviour

[31] UK GBC (no date) Net Zero Carbon Buildings Framework (PDF)

[32] Royal Institute of British Architects (2019). Whole life carbon assessment for architects

[33] UK Government (2021) Heat and buildings strategy. Gov.uk

[34] UK Government (2024) Help to save households money and deliver cleaner heat to homes. Gov.uk

[35] UK Government (2025) Warm homes and cheaper bills as government accelerates Plan for Change Gov.uk

[36] Construction Leadership Council (CLC) (2021) Greening Our Existing Homes. Federation of Master Builders.

[37] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2023) Indoor Air Quality. UK Parliament.

[38] Gupta, R. and Berry, C. (2023) Examining the concentrations and trends in indoor air quality in existing UK social housing dwellings. Oxford Brookes University.

[39] Gupta R. and Howard, A (2022) Exposure to indoor air pollutants in a deep energy retrofit of block of flats in the UK. Oxford Brookes University.

[40] Climate Change Committee (2019) (online) UK housing: Fit for the future?

[41] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2021) Environmental housing standards. UK Parliament.

[42] Estimates indicate around 80% of homes that will be available in 2050 have already been built (See: Net zero and the UK’s historic building stock – POST)

[43] O Regan, N (2023) Insulating Britain: Examining the barriers and motivations to decarbonising our homes. Social Market Foundation.

[44] Chartered Institute of Housing (no date) Chartered Institute of Housing response to the Net Zero (PDF)

[45] O Regan, N (2023) Insulating Britain: Examining the barriers and motivations to decarbonising our homes. Social Market Foundation.

[46] London Assembly (2023) Retrofit skills

[47] UK Government (2021) Improving Energy Performance Certificates: action plan – progress report. Gov.uk

[48] Trustmark (2024) A guide to Retrofitting your home (PDF)

[49] UK Government (no date) Demonstration of Energy Efficiency Potential (DEEP). Gov.uk

[50] O Regan, N (2023) Insulating Britain: Examining the barriers and motivations to decarbonising our homes. Social Market Foundation.

[51] National Audit Office (2016) Green Deal and Energy Company Obligation. National Audit Office.

[52] Wise, F. et al (2025) Retrofit information challenges and potential solutions: Perspectives of households, retrofit professionals and local policy makers in the United Kingdom. Energy Research & Social Science. Volume 119, January 2025, 103866

[53] Benton, E. et al (2022) Climate Crisis/Housing Crisis: How can social landlords reconcile safety and energy saving? Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, London School of Economics and Political Science.

[54] Benton, E. et al (2022) Climate Crisis/Housing Crisis: How can social landlords reconcile safety and energy saving? Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, London School of Economics and Political Science.

[55] The University of Manchester and CLES (2022) Retrofitting housing: Translating net-zero commitments into actions and impacts. CLES.

[56] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2024) Enabling green choices for net zero. UK Parliament.

[57] Nationwide. (2024) Greener rentals worth nearly £20K more but landlords need Government support to retrofit by 2030 deadline. Nationwide media centre.

[58] In 2025, the Government launched a consultation on its proposals to raise minimum energy efficiency standards for privately rented homes in England and Wales by 2030. See: UK Government (2025) Improving the energy performance of privately rented homes: 2025 update Gov.uk

[59] The Housing Finance Corporation (no date) Retrofitting social housing: a new mixed funding model – THFC – The Housing Finance Corporation Limited. The Housing Finance Corporation.

[60] Scottish Government (2022) Scottish Social Housing Charter November 2022. Gov.scot

[61] Scottish Government (no date) Energy efficiency in social housing – Home energy and fuel poverty. Gov.scot

[62] Scottish Government (no date) Social housing. Gov.scot

[63] House of Commons Library (2022) Energy efficiency of homes in the north of England – House of Commons Library. UK Parliament.

[64] Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (2022), Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit | Levelling up or letting down? (eciu.net)

[65] Braithwaite, I. et al (2023) Housing and climate: UK homes need urgent adaptation to protect our health. The BMJ.

[66] UK Government (2021) Overheating: Approved Document O. Gov.uk

[67] UK Government (2021) New homes to produce nearly a third less carbon. Gov.uk

[68] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2021) Environmental housing standards. UK Parliament.

[69] UK Government (no date) The Future Homes Standard: changes to Part L and Part F of the Building Regulations for new dwellings. Gov.uk

[70] House of Commons Library (2024) Environmental standards for new housing. UK Parliament.

[71] UK Government (2021) Heat and buildings strategy. Gov.uk

[72] Harvey, F. (2024) English homes ‘face decades of high bills and emissions’ without urgent action from ministers. The Guardian.

[73] CIBSE (no date) The Future Homes and Buildings Standards

[74] UK Government (2021) The Future Homes Standard: 2019 Consultation on changes to Part L (conservation of fuel and power) and Part F (ventilation) of the Building Regulations for new dwellings (PDF)

[75] The report also confirmed that there will be no role for hydrogen in home heating.

[76] Adams S. and Hodges M. (2018) Adapting for ageing: Good practice and innovation in home adaptations. Centre for Ageing Better.

[77] Age UK (no date) Tips on adapting your home as you get older. Age UK.

[78] UK GBC (no date) Home Retrofit | UKGBC. UK GBC.

[79] Energy Saving Trust (2021) Retrofitting the UK’s housing stock to reach net zero. Energy Saving Trust.

[80] World Economic Forum (2022) For net zero cities, we need to revisit our older buildings. World Economic Forum.

[81] Northumbria University (no date) (online) Smart Connected Homes. Northumbria University.

[82] Age UK (2019) Modern Methods of Construction: Submission to Inquiry. Age UK.

[83] Green Finance Institute (2024) Property Linked Finance: A NEW FINANCIAL SOLUTION TO DECARBONISE THE UK’S HOMES AND BUILDINGS (PDF)

[84] Sturgis S. (2020) The RICS Whole life carbon assessment for the built environment: how, why and what next? Construction Journal, RICS.

[85] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2020) Reducing the whole life carbon impact of buildings. UK Parliament.

[86] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (2021) Environmental housing standards. UK Parliament.

[87] Centre for Inequality and Levelling Up (2022) Levelling Up: What is it and can it work? (uwl.ac.uk)

[88] UK Government (2021) Heat and buildings strategy. Gov.uk

[89] UK Government (2024) Our plan to build more homes. Gov.uk

[90] Planning, Building and Construction today (2025) Older people’s housing recommendations supported by HAA. Planning, Building and Construction Today.

[91] Age UK (2024) Parliamentary Briefing: Housing – Building for an ageing population – November 2024 (PDF). Age UK.

[92] Planning, Building and Construction today (2025) CIC housing target inquiry calls for evidence. Planning, Building and Construction today.

[93] NESO (no date) Electricity System Operator: Innovation Strategy 2024/25 (PDF). NESO.

[94] National Energy Service Operator (no date) What we do. National Energy Service Operator.

[95] UK Parliament (2024) Great British Energy Bill – Parliamentary Bills. UK Parliament.

[96] Women’s Budget Group (2020) Creating a Caring Economy: A Call to Action. Women’s Budget Group.

[97] House of Commons Library (2023) The role of local government in reaching net zero. UK Parliament.

[98] Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee (2021) Local government and the path to net zero – Reports, special reports and government responses. UK Parliament.

[99] Box, P. (no date) Our homes are not ready for climate change. Local Government Association.

Photo by: Brett Jordan, via Unsplash