Regulation and state use of social media
The use of social media raises questions around security, state regulation, privacy, and online safety. How can states balance regulation and personal freedom?
Political polarisation could affect political participation. How do inequality and socioeconomic factors intersect with extremism?
Discussions continue around political polarisation and participation, and in recent decades, there has been a rise in political polarisation in many large democracies.1 There are indications that politics is becoming more polarised worldwide, particularly in the US, but how far this applies to the UK and the consequences for political participation remain unclear. There have been reductions in the number of people who strongly identify with a particular party or along a left-right axis, with a trend for citizens to feel their political opinions are unrepresented.2 Political fragmentation (where parties have split into smaller groups and electoral volatility increased) has occurred in the UK and much of Europe.34 Instead of parties, there are suggestions that people are aligning themselves based on specific political/social issues (known as ‘issue polarisation’).56 Media claims that the UK population is divided along the lines of the EU referendum vote have been challenged as overly simplistic,2,7 however, and issue polarisation is not necessarily reflected in different group identities. For example, while UK voters may strongly identify with their ‘side’ of the Brexit vote and view the other side negatively (known as ‘affective polarisation’),89 there tends to be less disagreement between their positions on many salient issues besides immigration.2
Economic, social and institutional factors can affect groups’ engagement in politics and in their political identity.10 Increased levels of relative deprivation and feelings of a lack of political representation can decrease levels of ‘conventional’ political participation (such as voting or belonging to a political party) while increasing ‘unconventional’ participation (such as protest).1112 People tend to protest more during periods of economic hardship or perceived inequality, such as Occupy Wall Street or the Gilets Jaunes movements. Extreme protest behaviours (such as disruptive direct action or violent protest) that have been witnessed in recent years are associated with a variety of political/social issues and movements.13 Research suggests that this can create a backlash effect where people move their views further away from the movement, further contributing to affective polarisation and in some cases creating ‘reciprocal radicalisation’.14,15,16 In addition, populist narratives have been shown to increase political participation in certain groups.17 Populist narratives can articulate a grievance or dissatisfaction with political systems,18 and a combination of populist narratives, polarisation and feelings of relative deprivation can lead to greater levels of unconventional participation and lead to political adjustment.
While the effects of the pandemic on future participation and polarisation are not yet fully understood, a study examining the association between influenza deaths and local voting preferences in Germany in the early 20th century found that high levels of mortality in a year were associated with an increase in votes for extremist political parties.19 Some point out that reductions in social interactions and social isolation during lockdowns may reduce political participation, as these are a key antecedent of political engagement.20 Suggestions for how to reduce polarisation range from greater public funds to support broadcast media to moving away from predominantly two-party systems.21,22 Other suggestions for broadening participation include ensuring that politicians are representative of their electorate and tackling ongoing concerns about the lack of diversity in politics. For example, people are more likely to donate to political figures who share their characteristics (such as gender), and women and people from ethnic minority backgrounds are less likely to donate to political campaigns than White men.23 Research also suggests that White voters may be less likely to vote for a candidate appearing to appeal to ethnic minority communities.24
Medium impact and medium likelihood over the next five years.
Photo by James Eades on Unsplash
The use of social media raises questions around security, state regulation, privacy, and online safety. How can states balance regulation and personal freedom?
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