Public trust and confidence in the police

Natalie Low; Rebecca Owen-Evans

Overview

Trust and confidence in policing has declined in recent years (PN693), with high-profile incidents of misconduct and criminality.[1] In October 2024, 52% of adults told a YouGov survey of Great Britain that they had no/not very much confidence in the police to tackle crime locally, compared to 39% in October 2019.[2]

Over the last 25 years, there have been long-term reductions in the level of recorded crime,[3] alongside increases in the number of police officers.[4] Despite this, in 2024, HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) found that many forces did not have enough resources to meet the needs of their communities, or a sufficient understanding of the demand for their services.[5]

Increasingly, the police have to undertake more complex and resource-intensive investigations,[5] for example, economic or technology-enabled crimes, or those involving vulnerable victims, such as human trafficking.[6][7] HMICFRS has noted the complexity and “widespread systemic failings in both” the police and wider criminal justice system.[1]

Challenges and opportunities

Falling trust makes it harder for police officers and staff to do their jobs, undermining the fundamental principle of ‘policing by consent’.[1]

An individual’s, and group experiences, of the police, police conduct and performance, and media coverage can affect trust (PN693). There are multiple barriers to trust and confidence in the police, including negative media coverage of the police, police misconduct and negative public perceptions of police performance (PN693).

While most people may not have direct contact with the police, extensive research shows that greater emphasis on ensuring officers interact with members of the public in a “procedurally just” way is likely to increase trust in the police (PN693).

As of October 2024, YouGov reported that 54% of adults in Great Britain thought the police were doing a good job, down from 72% in October 2019.[8] At the time, four out of 43 forces were in the “engage” process,[9] the Inspectorate’s enhanced level of monitoring where forces are not responding to, or not succeeding in addressing, a cause of concern.[10]

In 2024, HMICFRS found that police forces were investing more resources into neighbourhood and community policing, which it saw as an opportunity to restore public confidence, and fundamental to police-public relations and crime prevention.[5] In her 2023 review of the Metropolitan Police Service (the Met), Baroness Casey noted that de-prioritisation of neighbourhood policing had weakened connections with communities.[11] Research has also suggested that closing local police stations can have negative impacts on crime levels[12] or public perceptions.[13]

In 2023, the Home Affairs Committee (HASC) concluded that workforce and culture change should be the first priority for policing in England and Wales.[14] HMICFRS highlighted specific “atrocious reasons” for the decline in public trust and confidence, including the murder of Sarah Everard by a serving police officer in 2021, and the 2023 conviction of another serving officer for 85 sexual offences.[1] The Casey Review highlighted the need to tackle “deep seated cultures” within the Met, including “defensiveness and denial”.[11]

Police vetting has been a particular cause for concern,[15][16] which was highlighted in the case of Sarah Everard’s murderer.[17] In 2023, the Home Office intended to introduce procedures to dismiss those officers who cannot hold vetting clearance.[18] The College of Policing updated its vetting Code of Practice in July 2023.[19] The code includes the presumption that those who have a “conviction or caution for a criminal offence” will not pass vetting (although in some cases this may not be applied, depending on factors such as their age when committing an offence).[20] Existing officers who cannot hold the correct clearance for their role should be dismissed (where no suitable alternative is available).

In 2022, HASC found that, despite improvements, there was still not a fair, open and trusted mechanism in place to deal with police misconduct and complaints.[21] A 2023 survey by the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC), the police complaints watchdog, found that 57% of the public were not confident that the police would deal fairly with complaints, the highest level since 2017.1,[22] A 2023 independent review of the IOPC made several recommendations, including around speeding up its investigation processes and improving transparency.[23]

There are ongoing concerns about institutional racism and the police’s relationship with some ethnic minority communities, particularly within the Met.[11][24][25] Black communities are often described as over-policed and under-protected.[24] In the 2023 Crime Survey for England and Wales, 60% of Black adults said they had confidence in their local police, as did 57% of adults of mixed ethnicity, compared to 68% of adults overall.[26] 2022 research suggested that a perceived failure to protect Black communities, negative interactions, and concerns about the use of stop and search were drivers of Black people’s low trust in the police.[27] Home Office figures for 2022-23 found that people identifying as Black or Black British were stopped and searched at a rate 4.1 times higher than those from a white ethnic group across England and Wales.[28]

HASC highlighted the importance of a diverse police workforce that is representative of local communities.[14] Home Office statistics on police officers in England and Wales for March 2024 noted that:[4]

8% of officers identified as belonging to a minority ethnic group, compared to 18% in the population, and up from 5% in 2007. Under-representation was highest amongst senior ranks. Rates of voluntary resignations and dismissals were higher amongst officers who identified as ethnic minorities.
35% of officers were women. While representation has improved, structural barriers to women’s progression, such as access to flexible working, remain.[29]

Police officer numbers have increased in recent years in England and Wales.[30] As of 31 March 2024, there were 147,746 (FTE) police officers operating in England and Wales, the highest number since comparable records began in 2003 (CO00634).[4] Despite the increase in numbers, police forces face a challenge in securing the right mix of knowledge and skills to do their work effectively:[31]

As of March 2024, the leaver rate was the second highest since 2003 (6.2%),[4] with concerns about staff burnout.[32]
HMICFRS identified inexperience in police officers was a major challenge for forces.[5] As of March 2024, 35% of all police officers in England and Wales had less than five years’ service.[4] The Police Foundation also highlighted the importance of improving the provision, and culture, around learning and development.[31]
HMICFRS, and other commentators, have highlighted skills shortages,[1][5] such as relational, investigative and digital skills,[31] and the loss of skilled civilian staff, which can reduce knowledge of local crime patterns.[11]

The Police Foundation highlighted the impact of changing technology on the nature of crime and harm.[31] As covered in more detail in HS56 cyber crime and harm, cyber- and AI-enabled crime is increasing, for example in fraud (PN720). The Online Safety Act 2023 introduced new criminal offences from January 2024, such as cyberflashing.[33] Such developments have implications for how police prevent and investigate crimes, and support victims.[34][35][36]

New technologies, such as Facial Recognition Technology or in police-public interactions using online portals, chatbots and live chat, also have wide applications in policing.[37][38][39] However, while technology can bring benefits such as greater accountability,[40] there has been debate over potential negative impacts, including on civil liberties, risks around equality and discrimination, and public trust (PN708).[40] See HS77 Use of digital, scientific and other technologies by the police and wider criminal justice system for more details.

See also HS62 Policing: a public health approach, which looks at how the police can work with other local bodies to improve responses to social issues such as drug use, youth violence and people in mental health crisis.

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The wide-ranging Criminal Justice Bill and the Sentencing Bill both fell at the end of the previous Parliament in May 2024.[41] The King’s Speech in July 2024 noted the government’s intention to pass a Crime and Policing Bill, and a Victims, Courts and Public Protection Bill.[42] The Crime and Policing Bill is expected to include measures to strengthen neighbourhood policing and improve policing standards, through expanding HMICFRS’s intervention powers, and mandating higher national vetting standards and new arrangements to deliver efficiency savings.[42]

Key questions for Parliament

How can public trust and confidence in the police be improved, particularly among those communities who may feel over-policed and under-protected?
Are police forces expanding neighbourhood policing approaches, and what difference is this making to crime levels, performance, and police-public relationships?
How can policing ensure that it has robust and effective mechanisms in place, both to prevent misconduct and criminality by officers, and to deal with these issues if they occur?
How can police forces secure workforce and culture change, and demonstrate that they have done so?
How can police forces recruit and retain a more diverse and representative workforce?
How can policing introduce new technologies in ways that support public trust and confidence?

References

[1] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (2023). State of Policing: The Annual Assessment of Policing in England and Wales 2022

[2] YouGov (2024). How much confidence Brits have in police to deal with crime, accessed 21 October 2024

[3] Office for National Statistics (2023). Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2023

[4] Home Office (2024). Police workforce, England and Wales: 31 March 2024

[5] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (2024). State of Policing: The Annual Assessment of Policing in England and Wales 2023

[6] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (2022). State of Policing: The Annual Assessment of Policing in England and Wales 2021

[7] Institute for Government (2024). Fixing public services: the criminal justice system

[8] YouGov, Are the police doing a good job?, accessed 18 September 2024

[9] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services, Police forces in Engage, accessed 8 July 2024

[10] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services. Our approach to monitoring forces

[11] Baroness Casey of Blackstock DB CBE (2023). Baroness Casey Review: Final Report

[12] Facchetti, E. (2024). Police infrastructure, police performance, and crime: Evidence from austerity cuts Institute for Fiscal Studies

[13] Smith, K. (2019). The Emergency of Ungoverned Space in the British Countryside. International Journal of Rural Law and Policy. Article ID 6555

[14] Home Affairs Committee (2023). Policing priorities

[15] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (2022). An inspection of vetting, misconduct, and misogyny in the police service

[16] HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (2023). Vetting, misconduct and misogyny in the police service: review of progress

[17] The Angolini Inquiry (2024). Part 1 Report

[18] UK Parliament (2023). Statement UIN HCWS1035 [on Police Integrity], 18 September 2023

[19] College of Policing (2023). Vetting Code of Practice updated

[20] College of Policing (2023). Vetting Code of Practice

[21] Home Affairs Select Committee (2022). Police conduct and complaints

[22] Independent Office for Police Conduct (2023). IOPC Public Perceptions Tracker Summary Report, Waves 6.1 – 6.3

[23] Fairfield, G. (2023). Independent Review of the Independent Office for Police Conduct Home Office

[24] National Police Chiefs’ Council and College of Policing (2022). Police Race Action Plan

[25] Race Disparity Unit and Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities (2022). Inclusive Britain: summary of recommendations and actions

[26] GOV.UK (2024). Confidence in the local police

[27] Crest Advisory (2022). Crime, policing and stop and search: Black perspectives in context

[28] Home Office (2024). Police powers and procedures: Stop and search and arrests, England and Wales, year ending 31 March 2023 (second edition)

[29] Charman, S. Not Just a Numbers Game: Assessing the Journey of Women in Policing from Representation to Inclusion, The Political Quarterly, 1 July 2024

[30] National Police Chiefs’ Council. Police Uplift Programme

[31] The Police Foundation (2022). Final report of the strategic review of policing in England and Wales

[32] National Police Wellbeing Service and Durham University, National Police Wellbeing Survey 2023 results, accessed 8 July 2024

[33] Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (2024). Online Safety Act: explainer GOV.UK

[34] Horgan, S (2021). The reality of ‘cyber awareness’: findings and policy implications for Scotland The Scottish Centre for Crime & Justice Research

[35] Giro Correia, S. (2022). Making the most of cybercrime and fraud crime report data: a case study of UK Action Fraud, International Journal of Population Data Science, 7(1)

[36] Scheuerman, M. K. et al. (2021). A Framework of Severity for Harmful Content Online, Proc. ACM Human Computer Interactions. 5, CSCW2, Article 368

[37] Home Office (2024). Improving police productivity: a response to the recommendations of the Policing Productivity Review (accessible)

[38] Hansard (2023). Provisional Police Grant 2024-25: England and Wales Volume 742, Thursday 14 December 2023

[39] Higgins, A. and Halkon, R. (2023). Contact and confidence in a digital age The Police Foundation

[40] Bradford, B. et al. (2022). ’Virtual policing’, trust and legitimacy, in J. Terpstra, R. Salet & N.R. Fyfe (Eds.), Abstract Police: Critical reflections on contemporary change in police organisations (213-238)

[41] UK Parliament (2024). Criminal Justice Bill and Sentencing Bill

[42] Prime Minister’s Office (2024). The King’s Speech 2024: background briefing notes

Photo by: Ariel via Adobe Stock