Projecting Future Sea Level Rise

This POSTbrief provides further information on current projections of future sea level rise. It introduces sea level rise projections and discusses the various future emissions scenarios used in the projections, the different modelling methods employed, as well as the likelihood ranges and uncertainties associated with them. It also provides an overview of the current sea level rise projections arising from different modelling techniques and emission scenarios and discusses high-end sea level rise scenarios.

This POSTbrief accompanies POSTnote 555 Rising Sea Levels.

Acknowledgements

POSTbriefs are based on mini literature reviews and interviews with stakeholders and are externally peer reviewed. POST would like to thank peer reviewers for kindly giving up their time during the preparation of this briefing, including: 

• Prof David Vaughan, British Antarctic Survey
• Prof Tony Payne, University of Bristol
• Dr Rory Bingham, University of Bristol
• Dr Tamsin Edwards, Open University
• Dr Jeremy Hoffman, Science Museum of Virginia (USA)
• Prof Robert Nicholls, University of Southampton
• Prof Ian Townend, University of Southampton
• Dr Sally Brown, University of Southampton
• Dr Phil Woodworth, National Oceanography Centre
• Prof Jonathan Gregory, University of Reading
• Prof Chris Rapley, UCL & London Climate Change Partnership
• Dr Matt Palmer, Met Office
• Dr Richard Wood, Met Office
• Dr Tom Howard, Met Office