DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS103

Overview

Adaptable,[1] reliable, accessible, sustainable,[2] resilient to disruption and affordable transport is essential for accessing economic and social opportunities. For example, walking and cycling routes can be important to access local opportunities, but can be severed by other infrastructure or by routes becoming unsafe.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9] In 2024, the Secretary of State for Transport announced five strategic priorities, including “transforming infrastructure to work for the whole country, promoting social mobility and tackling regional inequality”.[10]

Mobility can be split into the physical and virtual. Physical mobility is the movement of people and goods in the physical world, while virtual mobility is the ability to access activities without physical travel. These systems interact. Virtual communication can replace or augment certain physical movements, such as hybrid meetings, while physical movements can be the results of virtual communication, such as car-ride hailing apps.[11]

Research experts identified the role the transport system plays in regional economic growth and productivity, access to employment and skills, and the disparities in access for different groups, as relevant to parliament over the next five years.

Challenges and opportunities

Equitable access to employment and opportunities

Car owners and main drivers have higher levels of access to opportunities across all income groups. However, 22% of households in England do not have car access,[12] and 40% of these households are low-income.[13]

Access to jobs is harder for those who do not have access to a car, particularly when living outside city centres and off public transport corridors.[14] There is a trend for low skilled, low waged employment being in locations that require car access, such as logistics warehouses. The low wages limit car travel options and the shift work often associated with such roles may fall outside public transport scheduling.[15]

It is calculated that 57% of the working-age population in England live in areas with low public transport access to jobs (defined as within 45 minutes travel time).[16] Access to healthcare is also more difficult, with 66% (7.8 million) of elderly people not able to reach a hospital within 30 minutes by public transport.[17]

There has been considerable decline in access to bus services.[18] On average, across England and Wales, urban bus services have declined by 48% and rural bus services by 52% since 2008, with some local authority areas experiencing declines of up to 80%.[19] Evening and night-time bus services are particularly affected, impacting shift workers and access to the nighttime economy.[20]

Young people (16-24) across the UK report transport as a barrier to accessing opportunities. They have lower car access and use the bus more than older age groups.[21] Journey times from some of England’s coastal communities to the nearest higher education provider can be over two hours by public transport. Those young people that can afford to leave their communities for educational opportunities are no longer available to recruit into local businesses, impeding development of the local economy.[22]

Woman and girls also report not taking up employment and training opportunities due to limited transport options, with safety identified as a factor. A survey commissioned by the British Transport Police, found that over a third of women have been victims of sexual harassment or sexual offences while commuting by train or tube.[23] It is estimated that up to 3.7% of GDP is lost through woman’s fears of accessing employment via public transport and active travel, and the wider impacts of violence against women deterring tourism and leisure journeys.[24]

Inclusive and accessible transport and mobility

People with disabilities make fewer trips than people without disabilities (594 trips annually, compared to 821).[25] A survey conducted by the Transport Committee identified several factors adversely affecting transport users with disabilities, including accessibility of vehicles and infrastructure (including bus stops and toilets), and attitudes and availability of public transport staff.[26]

53.9% of taxis and 2.2% of private hire vehicles are wheelchair accessible.[27] These figures have been falling since 2014. One fifth of the 2500 railway stations in Great Britain have step free access to and between all platforms and there is no legally binding end date for making railway stations accessible.[28]

While 99% of buses meet minimum accessibility standards[29], 46% of buses on local services display audio and visual information to passengers. [30] In 2023, the Department for Transport announced audio and visual journey information would be mandatory across Britain’s bus network, with compliance expected by October 2026.[31]

An inquiry by the Transport Committee found pavement parking has a particular adverse effect on people who have visual impairments, people who are neurodiverse, people who use mobility aids, and people who use pushchairs and walk with children.[32]

The committee found pavement parking exacerbating and causing social isolation and loneliness, with people feeling unable to leave their homes safely, or being physically prevented from doing so. The UK Government consulted on a national ban to pavement parking in England in 2020, with the results of the consultation yet to be announced.[33][34]

Transport investment and regional growth

Transport investment can improve the attractiveness of regions, generating economic activities that when supported by other investments including in education and innovation, foster economic growth.[35]

Congestion and “inadequate public transport networks” have been identified as key constraints on economic growth in England’s largest cities.[36] According to the Centre for Cities, poor urban transport makes UK cities effectively ‘smaller’ than their European counterparts, equating to a cost of £23 billion in lost economic activity.[37]

The National Infrastructure Commission argues that unlocking regional economic growth requires mass transit investment, but that public transport investments alone will be insufficient. They argue that cities will also need to use demand management interventions such as workplace parking levies and congestion charging to reduce congestion and improve capacity.[3]

Transport for the North (TfTN) calculates productivity in the north of England, measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) per capita, is 25% below the average for the rest of England. This equates to £4800 per person difference in income between the north and the rest of the UK.[38]

TfTN have identified “sub-optimal transport links and underinvestment in transport” as important reasons for this difference in productivity.[39] They argue that improving connectivity within the region, and between the north and other parts of the UK and internationally is central to reducing this gap.

Transport investment makes up the majority of economic development capital spending in England. In 2019/20 total transport spending in London (including capital and day to day spending) was £882 per person. This is £393 more per person than the England wide average.[40] This is driven by much higher public investment in transport in London than in other parts of the country,[41][42] such as the Crossrail project.[43]

The UK2070 Commission identified the appraisal process that supports investment decision making as a contributory factor in differences in regional investment.[44] A review by HM Treasury in 2020 found a heavy reliance on Benefit Cost Ratio in presenting the best options for investment to decision makers.[45]

The review noted how such reliance often overlooks the strategic context for investment decisions and how investment may affect places with specific social and economic features. In response, HM Treasury committed to ensuring that there is appropriate emphasis on the analysis of place-based impacts in decision making.[46]

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The 2023 Plan for Drivers noted that more people are continuing to drive atn an older age, with the proportion of people aged 70 or over holding a full driving licence increasing from 45% in 2002 to 73% in 2022.[47] However, an ageing population could place greater demands on public transport.

The development of assistive and autonomous driving technologies may help respond to the audio, visual and physical conditions of people living with disabilities.[48] However, the extent to which these technologies will be accessible in design and the extent to which they are rolled out at scale, and by when, is uncertain.[49]

Shifting to digital-enabled mobility may affect those digitally excluded or disengaged (PN 725). It involves using technologies to optimise the overall transport experience and create new services.[50][51] For example, apps providing accurate, up-to-date information to plan optimal timing, route and mode of a trip, or for paying, such as for carparking.

Transport will be affected by growing climate change risks, such as severe storms and flooding, sea level rise, wildfires, high temperatures and droughts as demand for transport increases.[52] However, transportation demand will be affected by the impacts of new digital technologies on employment.[53][54][55]

Key questions for Parliament

  • How can transport, land use and digital systems be better integrated to promote access to opportunities?
  • How can national, devolved, regional and local government work together to deliver economic and social opportunities, including widening of access?
  • How can transport appraisal and evaluation take more account of economic and social objectives, such as greater access to opportunities and widening accessibility?
  • How effective is current legislation in ensuring accessibility for all transport users? How can policies to implement the shift to digital-enabled mobility ensure that the technologies and systems improve accessibility for those living with disabilities?

References

[1] Adaptable to general unpredictability as well as technological innovation

[2] Linked to health factors, such as air pollution and physical activity (https://www.sustrans.org.uk/)

[3] Mayor of London. (2022). Sustainable Transport, Walking and Cycling guidance

[4] Kiviluoto, K, et al. (2022). Towards sustainable mobility – Transformative scenarios for 2034. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Volume 16, 100690

[5] Ohlund, H. et al. (2021). Invest in Walking and Cycling For Sustainable, Safe Cities. Here’s How. World Resources Institute

[6] European Environment Agency. (2020). Walking, cycling and public transport in cities remain greener mobility options than electric scooters or car ride-hailing

[7] Walk21. (2024). Integrating walking + public transport

[8] Rich, J. et al. (2021). Cost-benefit of bicycle infrastructure with e-bikes and cycle superhighways. Case Studies on Transport Policy, Volume 9, Issue 2, Pages 608-615

[9] Yanocha, D. et al. (2022).  Making the Economic Case for Cycling. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy.

[10] Department for Transport (2024) ‘Transport Secretary sets out 5 key priorities to deliver the biggest overhaul to transport in a generation

[11] van der Waerden, P. et al. (2019). Chapter One – Communication and its relationship with digital and physical mobility patterns—A review. Advances in Transport Policy and Planning, Volume 3, Pages 3-27

[12] Department for Transport (2023) National Travel Survey 2022: Household car availability and trends in car trips.

[13] Lucas, K., Stokes, G., Bastiaanssen, J., and Burkinshaw, J. (2019) Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System. London: Government office for Science, page 4

[14] Lucas, K., Stokes, G., Bastiaanssen, J., and Burkinshaw, J. (2019) Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System. London: Government office for Science, page 7

[15] Calvert, T., et al. (2022). Perceived accessibility of employment sites by jobseekers and the potential relevance of employer-subsidised demand responsive transport to enhance the commute. Cities 130, 103872

[16] Lucas, K., Stokes, G., Bastiaanssen, J., and Burkinshaw, J. (2019) Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System. London: Government office for Science,  page 7

[17] Lucas, K., Stokes, G., Bastiaanssen, J., and Burkinshaw, J. (2019) Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System. London: Government office for Science,  page 12

[18] Tyers, R. and Wong, H. (2024) CBP-9464 Bus Policy in England. London: House of Commons.

[19] Friends of the Earth (2023) How Britain’s bus services have drastically declined

[20] Friends of the Earth (2023) How Britain’s bus services have drastically declined

[21] Chatterjee, K., Clark, B., Nguyen, A., Wishart, R., Gallop, K., Smith, N., Tipping, S. (2019) ‘Access to Transport and Life Opportunities.’ Bristol: UWE Bristol.

[22] Whitty, C. (2021) Chief Medical Officer’s Annual Report 2021 Health in Coastal Communities – Summary and recommendations London: Department of Health and Social Care. page 17

[23] British Transport Police (2023) Over a third of women have been sexually harassed on their commute to work,

[24] Transport for West Midlands (2021) Transport Champions for Tackling Violence Against Women and Girls: Recommendations to Make our Transport Network Safer for Woman and Girls.

[25] Department for Transport (2023) Inclusive Transport Scorecard

[26] House of Commons Transport Committee (2024) The work of the Transport Committee in the 2019 Parliament: First Report of Session 2023–24. London: House of Commons.

[27] Department for Transport (2024) Accredited official statistics

[28] HM Government (2022), National Disability Strategy, Part 1: practical steps now to improve disabled people’s everyday lives.

[29] HM Government (2022), National Disability Strategy, Part 1: practical steps now to improve disabled people’s everyday lives.

[30] Department for Transport (2023) Inclusive Transport Scorecard.

[31] Department for Transport (2023) New onboard announcements to make Britain’s buses accessible for everyone

[32] House of Commons Transport Committee (2019) Pavement parking: Thirteenth Report of Session 2017–19

[33] Department for Transport (2020). Pavement parking: options for change

[34] Local Government Association. (2024). The path to inclusive footways

[35] Pokharel, R., Bertolini, L. and Brömmelstroet, M. (2023) ’How does transportation facilitate regional economic development? A heuristic mapping of the literature’, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Vol. 19, 100817, pp. 1-13.

[36] National Infrastructure Commission (2023) ‘The Second National Infrastructure Assessment’. London: National Infrastructure Commission. Page 13.

[37] Rodrigues, G. and Breach, A. (2021) ‘Comparing Public Transport in the UK and Europe’s Biggest Cities’ London: Centre for Cities. page 5

[38] Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse: Independent Economic Review Core Messages. Manchester: Transport for the North. Page 4.

[39] Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan. Manchester: Transport for the North. Page 34.

[40] Pope, T. and Hourston, P. (2022) Levelling Up: Where does government spend money? Institute for Government.

[41] Ogden, K., et al. (2022). Does funding follow need? An analysis of the geographic distribution of public spending in England. IFS

[42] Davenport, A., and Zaranko, B. (2020). Levelling up: where and how? IFS

[43] McLean, R. et al. (2022). Crossrail cost to complete: Cost and commercial management.

[44] UK 2070 Commission (2020) Make No Little Plans: Final Report of the UK2070 Commission. Swindon: UK2070 Commission. Page 79.

[45] HM Treasury (2020) ‘Green Book Review 2020: Findings and Response’. London: HM Treasury.

[46] HM Treasury (2020) ‘Green Book Review 2020: Findings and Response’. London: HM Treasury.

[47] Department for Transport (2023), Plan for Drivers. London: Department for Transport.

[48]  Golbabaei, F., et al. (2024). Enabling mobility and inclusion: Designing accessible autonomous vehicles for people with disabilities. Cities, Volume 154, 105333

[49] Lucas, K., Stokes, G., Bastiaanssen, J., and Burkinshaw, J. (2019) Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System. London: Government office for Science.

[50] MEEP. (2025). Five Mobility Predictions 2025: The Year of Sustainable Innovation and Digital Transformation

[51] European Commission. Key technologies for the digitalisation of transport

[52] United Nations Environment Programme (2024). Climate Risks in the Transportation Sector.

[53] Litsardopoulos, N. (2024). What is the impact of new workplace technologies on job quality? IES

[54] Prytkova, K., et al. (2024). The Employment Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies. UCL

[55] Shen, Y. et al. (2024) The impact of artificial intelligence on employment: the role of virtual agglomeration. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, volume 11, Article number:122


Photo by: Mikey, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic

Horizon Scan 2024

Emerging policy issues for the next five years.