Table of contents
LouDOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS131
Overview
Contributors to the horizon scan stated that transport planning, policy and the broader regulatory landscape are key considerations for the UK in dealing with a range of challenges and changes facing the sector, including harnessing the potential of emerging transport technologies for societal benefit and addressing the transport sector’s carbon emissions.[1][2][3]
Challenges and opportunities
Contributors to the horizon scan stated the need for a UK long-distance and inter-urban transport strategy that aligns with broader decarbonisation, adaptation, economic and social objectives through this network infrastructure. Government sets out overarching transport objectives in policies and secondary legislation, with higher tier County and Unitary Councils responsible for transport planning across their administrative boundaries.[4]
However, stakeholders say that the multiple scales required for integrated transport planning, such as of inter- and intra- urban transport planning, does not sit well with the administrative structures of local authorities or even strategic combined authorities.[5][6][7] They also argued that such a transition may require the use of new or different indicators of progress than those currently embedded in policy practice.[8][9][10][11][12][13]
Research experts argue that a comprehensive transport planning and policy framework needed to be supported by the capacity to deliver nationally significant infrastructure projects through to small-scale local objectives. This includes supporting place-based infrastructure and interventions, such as the co-location of services and community hubs, requiring integration across land-use and transport planning. Advice to DfT has suggested that many larger housing developments may be ‘in the wrong place’ from a transport perspective, with a broader, systems-thinking approach required to refocus objectives around maximising accessibility, rather than mobility.[14]
A collaborative approach
Contributors also stated that transport planning and policy has a role in ensuring a fair and just transition (PN706). They said that collaborative and place-based approaches to transport planning and policy will be increasingly valuable for understanding and balancing the priorities of different stakeholders and creating approaches with buy-in across communities. Such approaches are especially important when difficult political choices may be required (PN736). [15][16][17][18][19]
Contributors also said there was a need for joined-up strategies that recognise the transition to net-zero requires social as well as technical change. For example, electric-bikes (e-bikes) present an opportunity for reducing car travel, with the potential to decrease emissions by 24.4 million tonnes per annum in England alone.[20] The potential reduction per person is the highest in rural areas at over 750 kg CO2 per person per year.[21] Despite their potential, the role of e-bikes in the transition to net zero transport requires addressing several challenges including behavioural change towards e-bike adoption, the economic viability for widespread use, and the infrastructural developments necessary to support safe and efficient usage.[22]
Planning EV adoption
Contributors highlighted how the running costs of electric vehicles (EV’s) are substantially lower than those of petrol and diesel vehicles, which may incentivise the use of the private car at the expense of public transport and active travel, with implications for congestion and health.[23] It was suggested a possible just transition may not arise if EV owners and users do not pay a tax reflecting road use and that a national road pricing scheme may be needed to address this.[24] Moreover, evidence shows a reduction in vehicle miles travelled is needed to achieve carbon emission targets. This evidence indicated to some of our contributors, that a national road traffic reduction target may be needed and that new mechanisms for regulating demand for road travel may be required.[25][26]
The transport sector’s transition to net-zero also has implications for investment in energy infrastructure, with contributors arguing there needs to be a clear strategy for how the increasing demand for electricity from road and rail transport in particular, will be met. For example, the increase in electric vehicles (EVs) will require upgrading local electricity distribution networks and co-ordinated charging approaches.[27][28][29][30][31]
The potential of new technologies in transport planning and policy
Contributors also identified the potential for new technologies, such as artificial intelligence to support more effective and efficient transport planning and policy.[32][33][34] For example, artificial intelligence applications have the potential to provide access to new and large data sets that can be used to help identify issues in real-time or before they arise. Supporting prevention of vehicle collisions to improve road safety, for example.[35][36]
Artificial intelligence and its applications can also create opportunities for more responsive management of systems. For example, dynamic parking arrangements, where parking permits or pricing can be adjusted or managed in real-time based on changing demand, time of day or location, to manage congestion.[37][38]
Contributors stated that the adoption of emerging transport technologies, such as connected and autonomous vehicles and Mobility as a Service (MaSS) platforms may support the transition to net-zero. For example, through better integrating transport modes and a more efficient use of road (and other) space, making the use of sustainable transport options more viable and attractive to users.[39][40][41] However, contributors identified that these environmental benefits were not guaranteed and required monitoring of the effectiveness of existing regulation and policy to ensure potential benefits were realised and risks of societal harm were avoided.[42]
However, concerns were raised by contributors about whether central and local government have the capacity, skills and resources required to acquire these technologies and analyse the data effectively.[43] There are also uncertainties about the ability of central and local government to access this data if owned by private companies. Concerns were also raised about the cybersecurity, safety and privacy risks of widespread application of artificial intelligence processes.[44][45][46][47]
Contributors also noted that many emerging technologies and their applications were also in test and demonstration phase, with key uncertainties as to how and when technologies might be upscaled and used extensively. This included concerns over the length of time it takes to have the appropriate regulation in place to support delivery and use of such technologies. There are also concerns about public acceptance of these technologies.[48][49]
Uncertainties
- How the move to strategic authorities and further local devolution in England will affect local transport plans and delivery, including opportunities for place-based approaches to policymaking.[50]
- What role future political and governance structures could play in integrating transport and land use planning at different scales.
- Public acceptance of emerging technologies and their applications, and the implications for policy, planning and regulation.[51]
- The institutional capacity of national, regional and local government to harness the potential benefits of emerging technologies for transport policy and planning.
- The institutional capacity of regulators to effectively engage with the development of new transport technologies to steer their implementation
- The extent to which existing planning and policy tools and practices are equipped to support decisionmakers with cross-sector and cross-scale challenges.
Key questions for Parliament
- How can transport planning and policies be strategically aligned across national, regional and local scales to ensure that the UK meets its net zero targets by 2050 and that there is a just transition for local communities?
- What steps can be taken to promote the widespread adoption of innovations and technologies to increase the environmental sustainability of transport, such as e-bikes?
- What mechanisms can be implemented to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of transport policies and plans to reduce emissions while increasing the mobility efficiency of the transport system for goods and people?
References
[1] DfT. (2021). Decarbonising Transport. A Better, Greener Britain.
[2] Green Alliance. Decarbonising transport, For a healthier, low carbon transport system for all
[3] House of Lords Library. (2024). Strategies to address issues in the transport system
[4] National Association of Local Councils. (2019). The good councillor’s guide to transport planning
[5] Smyth, R. (2025). Where will transport fit in the new structure for local government? TAPAS.network
[6] Transport Scotland. (2019). Transport Governance. A report by a short-life working group looking at the roles and responsibilities of the bodies who run Scotland’s transport network
[7] Breach, A. (2025). A zoning system for England. Centre for Cities
[8] Ternes, V. et al. (2024). A just transition or just a transition? The understanding and relevance of fairness in planning for a decarbonised transport system. Energy Research & Social Science, Volume 113, 103549
[9] Changing Transport. Just Transition
[10] Scottish Government. (2023). Just Transition. Transport.
[11] SLOCAT (October 2023) and the International Transport Workers’ Federation. (2023). Prioritising just transition for transport in Nationally Determined Contributions
[12] Vizard, P. (2022). The holes in the UK levelling up strategy: key omissions from the government’s metrics. LSE
[13] DfT. (2023). Local authority transport: how to prepare data before sharing it
[14] DfT. (2024). Land use and transport planning: DfT Science Advisory Council paper
[15] Marsden et al https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/197550/
[16] International Transport Forum. (2023). G20 High-level Principles for Transport Decarbonisation
[17] Priestley Centre for Climate Futures. (2024). Transport decarbonisation hub secures £46 million support
[18] N8 Research Partnership. (2024). N8 Research Partnership showcases collaborative research to tackle transport decarbonisation
[19] Choi, H. (2023). Future of Transport: Decarbonising a complex system
[20] Philips, I., Anable, J. and Chatterton, T., 2022. E-bikes and their capability to reduce car CO2 emissions. Transport Policy, 116, pp.11-23.
[21] As above.
[22] Philips, I., Anable, J. and Chatterton, T. 2020. e-bike carbon savings – how much and where? CREDS Policy brief 011. Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions: Oxford.
[23] Penn, A., et al. (2022). Adopting a Whole Systems Approach to Transport Decarbonisation, Air Quality and Health: An Online Participatory Systems Mapping Case Study in the UK. Atmosphere 13(3), 492
[24] House of Commons Transport Committee. Road pricing. Fourth Report of Session 2021–22
[25] Hopkinson, L.., et al. (2021). The last chance saloon: we need to cut car mileage by at least 20%. Radical Transport Policy Two-Pager #10. Transport for Quality of Life.
[26] Lam, D. and Wengraf, I. (2023). Is it necessary to reduce car mileage to meet our carbon emission goals? RAC Foundation.
[27] National Grid. Can the UK grid cope with the extra demand from electric cars?
[28] Venegas, F. et al. (2021). Active integration of electric vehicles into distribution grids: Barriers and frameworks for flexibility services. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 145, 111060
[29] Ray, S. et al. (2023). Review of electric vehicles integration impacts in distribution networks: Placement, charging/discharging strategies, objectives and optimisation models. Journal of Energy Storage, Volume 72, Part D, 108672
[30] Chandra, I. et al. (2024). A comprehensive review on coordinated charging of electric vehicles in distribution networks. Journal of Energy Storage Volume 89, 111659
[31] Ibrahim, R. et al. (2024). Analysis of multidimensional impacts of electric vehicles penetration in distribution networks. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 27854
[32] Nikitis et al https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/7/2789
[33] Stone, P. et al. (2016). Transportation Planning. In: Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030. One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence: Report of the 2015-2016 Study Panel, Stanford University, Stanford, CA,
[34] Han, X. et al. (2024). Foundation Intelligence for Smart Infrastructure Services in Transportation 5.0. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Vehicles, Volume: 9, Issue: 1, Page(s): 39 – 47
[35] Sohail et al Data-driven approaches for road safety: A comprehensive systematic literature review
[36] Local Government Association – Transport for West Midlands: Near miss detection with VivaCity | Local Government Association
[37] Hassine, S., et al. (2024). Dynamic Pricing and Route Guidance: A Multi-Agent System for Effective Parking and Traffic Management. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Volume 2678, Issue 10
[38] Sándor, Z. et al. (2015). Role of Integrated Parking Information System in Traffic Management. Periodica Polytechnica Civil Engineering, Vol. 59 No. 3
[39] Innovate UK. (2021). UK Transport vision 2050: investing in the future of mobility. UKRI
[40] GO-Science. (2019). A time of unprecedented change in the transport system. The Future of Mobility. Foresight
[41] European Commission. (2021). Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy. Putting European transport on track for the future.
[42] Marsden, G. and Reardon, L. (2018). Governance of the Smart Mobility Transition.
[43] DfT. (2023). Literature review: local authority capacity and capability for transport provision.
[44] Morris, D. et al. (2020). Cybersecurity threats in the auto industry: Tensions in the knowledge environment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 157, 120102
[45] Sommer, F. et al. (2024). Combining Cyber Security Intelligence to Refine Automotive Cyber Threats. ACM Transactions on Privacy and Security, Volume 27, Issue 2, Article No. 16, Pages 1 – 34
[46] Miller, T. et al. (2024). A Critical AI View on Autonomous Vehicle Navigation: The Growing Danger. Electronics, 13(18), 3660
[47] Durlik, I. et al. (2024). Cybersecurity in Autonomous Vehicles—Are We Ready for the Challenge? Electronics, 13(13), 2654
[48] Khan, S. et al. (2024). The impact of perceived cyber-risks on automated vehicle acceptance: Insights from a survey of participants from the United States, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia. Transport Policy, Volume 152, Pages 87-101
[49] University of Birmingham, Overview of Future Flight Challenge Public Engagement and Social Insight Reports
[50] MHCLG. (2025). Planning Reform Working Paper: Streamlining Infrastructure Planning
[51] University of Birmingham, Navigating Future Flight: Societal Principles for Drones and Advanced Air Mobility in the UK
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