War and the future of war

Sarah Williams; Simon Brawley

Overview

Global challenges such as population growth, migration, energy demands, and climate change, may fuel global instability and conflict.[1]

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been fast-evolving, high-tech warfare, with the conflict seeing new innovations in artificial intelligence (AI), cyber and drones.[2] The war has also caused European nations to produce more arms, and re-evaluate capabilities and readiness.[3]^,[4] However, limited arms manufacturing capacity may affect Europe’s ability to provide weapons to Ukraine or replenish stockpiles.[5]

The future of warfare will be shaped by rapidly changing technology and threats, including hybrid warfare, which blends conventional warfare with actions below thresholds that can result in open war, such as cyberattacks and disinformation.[6] The Ministry of Defence said that future UK defence strategy may need to continue to investigate cyber, space and AI to maintain a strategic advantage, and also to sustain cooperation with allies.[7],[8],[9]

However, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the ongoing role of conventional forces, and the need for careful direction of UK defence spending.[10] Some stakeholders note that fast-moving developments may require more agile defence planning and procurement to keep pace.[7]

The UK Government committed in its Integrated Review in March 2021 and the Refresh in 2023 to focus on science and technology to reinforce national security and grow cyber power.[1] The Ministry of Defence spent £2.1 billion on research and development in 2022 to 2023 in areas including space, directed energy weapons, advanced high-speed missiles, robotics, and autonomous systems.[11],[12]

Challenges and opportunities

Rapid technological change can bring benefits to the economy, society and improve infrastructure, but can also lead to new challenges.[2] UK Governments have sought good governance, shared rules and regulation in artificial intelligence, space and cyberspace, but competitive nations may not share the same values and ethics.[1],[13],[14]

AI is changing how war is fought, and the conflict in Ukraine has seen the use of military AI.[15] For instance, Ukraine analysts use AI to help determine the most likely locations of enemy positions.[15]

AI can also make use of data from a variety of sources, such as drone footage and satellite and thermal imagery, as well as open-source intelligence, for example soldiers’ social media posts. This information can be pieced together to detect targets in a digital ‘kill chain’, the stages in a cyber attack.[16] The ‘targeting cycle’, from locating a target and transmitting co-ordinates, to engagement by an artillery system, can take as little as three to four minutes.[17]

AI can be used by drones to evade electronic warfare, such as jamming, and navigate in environments with no GPS using pre-loaded maps.[18] Some drones do not need an operator, and can work together as a coordinated swarm.[19]

AI tools can also help document war crimes, clear land mines, and resettle displaced refugees.[15] AI social-network analysis is used for counterintelligence, for instance to identify anyone who may be sending geolocated pictures of infrastructure and military assets, or violating sanctions on Russia.[16]

Citizens across Ukraine are encouraged to contribute data for the war effort.[20] Data is important because it feeds AI algorithms and models that can detect patterns much faster than human intelligence.[21]

AI-enabled autonomous weapons systems (AWS), which will have full-strike capability without a human controller, are in development but not yet deployed.[19] There is widespread concern about how autonomous weapons could comply with international humanitarian law.[22] In 2019, 30 countries called for the prohibition of AWS on ethical grounds. This did not include the UK.[23],[24]

The former head of the US military has predicted that a third of advanced armed forces will be robotic in 10 to 15 years’ time due to the rapid development of autonomous vehicles.[10] At present, human decision making is an important element in how any military technology is used.

A former CIA director has said that uninhabited ‘machine-on-machine’ conflict may be justified in the future to reduce the risk to human life.[25]

Quantum technology could have an important impact on the future of encryption and stealth technologies by, for example:[26]

quantum communications, which cannot be decrypted
quantum radar, which can detect stealth aircraft
quantum sensors, which may allow operations in environments without access to GPS, or be used to detect submarines with possible implications for the UK’s nuclear deterrent

However, some of these technologies are some way off due to the challenges of creating and maintaining the small, fragile quantum objects involved. These objects can be disrupted by minute movements and changes in temperature.[27],[28]

The 2021 UK Integrated Review predicted an increased risk to national security due to a rise in cyber capability, militarisation of space, and proliferation of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons.[1] The review said “It is likely that a terrorist group will launch a successful CBRN attack by 2030.”

There is a risk that AI will accelerate disinformation, interference in political processes, and cyber-attacks.[29] Data protection may become crucial to UK resilience (POSTnote 719).[21]

UK defence relies on satellites for secure communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and position, navigation and timing (PNT) services. Witnesses to the House of Commons Defence Committee in 2022 said the UK is limited as a space power. In extreme scenarios, an attack in space could lead to nuclear escalation, particularly if early-warning and command-and-control satellites were disabled.[10] The UK launched its first military satellite in August 2024 from California.[30],[31]

The UK Armed Forces has declining troop numbers across the services, and decreased recruitment.[32] Regular personnel numbers have reduced by 20% since 2012.[33] Some commentators say the UK should recruit into under-resourced, skilled roles such as medicine, communications, engineering and cyber security.[34] Others say a military career has become less attractive for reasons such as poor pay and accommodation, and complaints of sexism and harassment.[35]

In February 2024, the MoD stated that for every eight service personnel who leave, it recruits five people.[36] A YouGov survey in January 2024 showed that 38% of under-40s would refuse to serve in the UK Armed Forces in the event of a world war, and 30% said they would not serve even if Britain was facing imminent invasion.[37] As with other European countries, there have been recent discussions in the UK about whether conscription or some form of national service might be required (see POST horizon scan article Critical infrastructure: readiness, resilience, and security).[38],[39],[40]

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The National Risk Register 2023 stated that future hostile acts towards the UK are difficult to predict.[41] It says there are risks to our security at home and overseas that could destabilise the UK and lead to future conflict, such as an attack on UK national infrastructure or against a NATO ally.[41]

The upcoming change of President in the US may have an important impact on NATO relations and the war in Ukraine, with some commentators suggesting the US may move defence away from Europe (see POST horizon scan articles UK-EU relations and European security and Critical infrastructure: readiness, resilience, and security).[5]

The UK’s ability to defend itself against future military threats depends on factors such as the strength of the economy, state of the Armed Forces, and political will to fund defence budgets and R&D into new technologies.[7]

Key questions for Parliament

What impact will emerging disruptive technologies have on the future of war?
How can the UK support the development of good governance, shared rules and regulation of the use of disruptive technologies such as autonomous weapons, offensive cyber capabilities and space technologies?
What are the UK’s strengths and weaknesses in defending against future military threats?
How might future US strategy impact on regional and global security?
How can Europe or NATO enhance its collective defence to reduce the likelihood of a future conflict with Russia?
Does the UK need to increase the size of its Armed Forces?
How can people be encouraged to serve in the Armed Forces?