Horizon scanning is used to identify insights on emerging trends and changes. Its aim is to support decision-makers in anticipating future developments, managing risks and pursuing opportunities.
In a fast-paced world, where unexpected events can dominate the news cycle and demand an immediate response from parliamentarians, horizon scanning is ever more important. By identifying and understanding emerging trends, decision-makers can anticipate future events, manage risks and set the agenda.
In early 2024, POST asked hundreds of experts from across the UK to identify future issues that parliament may need to address in the next five years. The Open University’s nQuire engagement tool was used to gather this information, and artificial intelligence was used to help process the consultation responses. Further information on the approach used is available here.
Over 100 major issues were identified, from prison reform and tackling extremism, to trust in public institutions and preventing disease. Short articles have been written on many of the issues to help parliament identify what action it may take. The issues are grouped under the topics below.
POST is sincerely grateful to all those who contributed to this work.
Overview Ten different issues were identified under this topic. Short articles have been written on these issues to help parliament identify what action it may wish to take. New articles will be added when they become available.
Insights on emerging trends in the natural environment, agriculture, food and rural affairs, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in transport and infrastructure, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in business, economics and trade, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in education, skills and work, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in international affairs and national security, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in housing, communities and local government, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Topics based on the suggestions of contributors categorised under the Crime and Justice area of Parliamentary interest.
Insights on emerging trends in health and social care, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in parliament, public administration and constitution, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in culture, media and sport, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
Insights on emerging trends in digital, innovation and science, developed for Horizon Scan 2024 to support decision-makers in the UK Parliament.
This publication builds on POST’s previous horizon scans. It used a new ‘Delphi 2.0’ method. This method is a structured approach to gathering and prioritising opinions from subject-matter experts using three steps: identification of issues, clustering of issues, and prioritisation of issues.
Parliamentary staff and experts in over 60 Higher Education Institutions (HEI) across the UK were consulted as part of this process. They were asked to identify policy relevant topics likely to be of importance over the next 2-5 years, with supporting evidence.
2,903 topics were identified using the Open University’s nQuire engagement tool. These topics were grouped into 12 ‘missions’. AI prompts developed by the Open University were used to cluster the topics into 10 themes per mission. The use of AI enabled wider and more inclusive engagement than would normally be possible.
These themes, and the underlying evidence, were sensed checked by parliamentary staff and written up as individual articles. All articles have been reviewed by researchers from a range of HEI. Additional articles will be published after the initial publication date.
More detailed information about this method will be published later.
POST is grateful to parliamentary colleagues and researchers who contributed their expertise and insights to this work.
POST is also grateful to Professor Anne Adams and the Open University for funding her Parliamentary Academic Fellowship. POST would also like to thank an advisory committee for helping to guide and evaluate the development of this project: