Table of contents
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS96
Overview
Climate change affects global stability and national security through severe weather events, mass migration, and increasing food and water insecurity.[1],[2] Worsening climate impacts can act as a ‘threat multiplier’, increasing social and political tensions and driving further regional instability.[3] It has been predicted that up to 130 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030, and 720 million by 2050, if the most severe impacts of climate change remain unmitigated.[3]
Researchers say climate change may increase the risk of resource-based conflict, especially in areas already affected by conflict.[4] However, the IPCC 6th Assessment Report highlighted the opportunity for climate solutions to bring peace and stability to vulnerable and conflict-prone regions.[3]
Challenges and opportunities
Climate change poses a risk to interlinked resources such as food, water, and energy, meaning an impact on one will result in cascade effects in the other two.[5] For instance, water scarcity will negatively impact crop production, including crops grown for biofuel production, resulting in a decrease in biofuel availability.[6]
Critical infrastructure is also likely to be impacted by the effects of climate change, including water, sanitation, energy, and transport.[7]
In 2020, a GCHQ-commissioned report by the Alan Turing Institute stated that climate security risks can be broadly split into three categories:[5]
- Physical risks: that describe physical risks to resources and critical infrastructure, such as water and sanitation, and considers the interconnected nature of water, energy and food.
- Human mobility and social cohesion risks: that describe risks that occur as a response to social and environmental changes when livelihoods are threatened, causing an increase in conflict and violence, and resulting in a shift in migration patterns.
- Transition risks: that describe the change towards establishing a low-carbon global economy, and the resulting changes to markets, technology, trade, and policy. These changes could pose varying degrees of threat to human and national security depending on their speed and nature of implementation.
Physical risks
Water
Two-thirds of the global population are currently living in water stressed regions, with about 1.8 billion people projected to experience water scarcity by 2025.[8] Decreased water availability may have important knock-on effects in health, agriculture, and energy, contributing to an increased risk of regional instability.[9] It is projected by the World Bank that some regions will lose 6 to 14% of their GDP by 2050 due to climate-induced water scarcity.[10]
The global water cycle is projected to change due to global warming, leading to increasing periods of drought and an increase in the number and severity of flooding events.[11],[12] Flooding affected 57 million people globally in 2022 and caused around 8,000 deaths.[13]
Severe droughts have affected 1.4 billion people between 2002 to 2021.[14],[15] Water scarcity has been linked to 10% of the rise of global migration.[7],[8],[9] However, the UN said that water scarcity has been a result, rather than a source, of conflict, particularly in the Middle East and north Africa, and has historically led to greater cooperation rather than conflict.[16]
Food security
In 2017, climate effects were the leading cause of global food crises, with 124 million people experiencing acute food insecurity or worse.[17] Food insecurity in one region can cause cascade effects in another due to the reliance of some regions on imports. For instance, Jordan imports 95% of its cereals, making it susceptible to climate-induced food volatility in price and access.[18] The UK imported 38% by value of all food it consumed in 2023.[19]
Energy
An increase in adverse weather events, including drought and flooding, can directly impact energy security by, for instance, affecting the critical infrastructure required for energy generation and storage.[20] Also, increasing temperatures are linked to an increased demand for energy, potentially impacting the ability to reliably supply electricity to end users.[21]
There are links between food and energy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen an increase in energy prices, with a resulting increase in food prices.[22]
Risks to human mobility and social cohesion
Migration and displacement
It is difficult to establish a direct link between climate change and human mobility.[23] Climate change affects various causes of migration, including conflict, governance, and opportunities further afield.[5] Also, it is difficult to accurately predict migration patterns caused by climate change due to the uncertainty in predicting future rainfall patterns, temperature increases and greenhouse gas emissions.[24]
There are long-term and short-term climate events, each affecting migration patterns differently. Long-term climatic events, such as drought, sometimes lead to long-term or permanent migration, whereas short-term climatic events, such as flooding, tend to result in short-term displacement, with most people eventually returning to their original residence.[25] Long-term displacement poses a greater risk to instability due to competition for jobs, increased pressure on public services, and local resources.[5]
However, planned migration can be used as a strategy to maintain livelihoods for affected communities in changing environments.[26]
Conflict
One study found that for every degree in atmospheric warming, the rates of interpersonal and intergroup conflict rose by 2.4% and 11.3 % respectively.[27] In Mali in 2009, a drought was used by Al-Qaeda to recruit and increase operations in the country.5 However, a robust relationship between climate change and conflict has been difficult to find by researchers.[28] For instance, food insecurity or increased food prices could be a cause of localised violence.[29] Also, one researcher found factors that link climate and conflict include levels of urbanisation, poverty levels, and governance structures.[30]
Transition risks
Adaptation to climate change can pose a threat to security. A 2019 report by the Netherlands Institute of International Relations said that transition may require careful planning to mitigate disaster risk.[31] Climate change adaptation policies and subsequent implementation may increase existing inequalities, including gender inequality.[19],[32]
The current method of climate policy assessment takes the form of post-implementation monitoring of unintended side effects rather than a proactive anticipatory approach.[5]
Transition may also have implications for society, economics, politics and trade.5 For example, a widespread uptake in renewable technologies such as batteries and solar panels relies on a significant number of raw materials in the form of minerals and metals.[33] The demand for these minerals and metals, such as lithium and cobalt, are rising, with extraction sometimes linked to armed groups engaged in illegal mining.[5] This can destroy farmland, pollute watercourses, and displace communities.[34]
Transition away from fossil fuels may also increase the vulnerability of coal, oil and gas-producing states, reconfigure the global oil supply chain, and contribute to energy insecurity for heavy importers of fossil fuels such as Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt.[5]
UK Government
In 2023 the UK government announced £100 million of UK funding will go towards helping climate-vulnerable populations adapt to climate change, including £20 million towards early warning systems, and £20 million for a new research programme in the UK to work on climate-resilient health systems.[35]
Key unknowns
Addressing climate security is a complex problem, with more research required to:
- establish which climate impacts drive displacement the most, and deliver a forecast of which groups and areas are most likely to be affected by climate induced migration
- weigh the benefits and risks of proposed policy and ensure any proposed framework has been assessed for unintended consequences prior to implementation
- ensure existing inequalities are not amplified by policy changes
- establish the ways in which climate change is leading to violence
Key questions for Parliament
- How can the UK successfully imbed climate security into climate strategies, policies, and plans?
- What is the UK’s current level of readiness for climate security, and what is the scale of the challenge facing the UK?
- How can UK funding be best targeted towards ensuring a just transition, climate adaptation and emergency response planning?
References
[1] IPCC (2013). Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[2] United Nations Development Programme (2023). What is climate security and why is it important?
[3] Adger, W.N. et al. (2015). Human security. In: Climate Change 2014 – Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
[4] Busby, J. W. (2020). Beyond internal conflict: The emergent practise of climate security. Journal of Peace Research, vol 58, 186-194.
[5] Malliaraki, E. et al. (2020). Climate aware and resilient national security: Challenges for the 21st Century. The Alan Turing Institute.
[6] Anderson, J. (2024). Understanding the Impact of Water Scarcity on Biofuel Production. Husfarm.
[7] McKinsey Global Institute (2020). Will infrastructure bend or break under climate stress?
[8] UNICEF (2020). Water scarcity: Addressing the growing lack of available water to meet children’s needs.
[9] IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[10] World Bank Group (2021). Lack of water linked to 10 percent rise in global migration.
[11] Haustein, K and Rayer, Q. (2023). Water Cycle Changes in a Warming World: The Scientific Background. In: Water Risk Modeling. Palgrave Macmillan.
[12] Wikipedia (2024). Water cycle.
[13] Jonkman, S. N. (2024). Floods have become less deadly: an analysis of global flood fatalities 1975–2022. Natural Hazards, 120, 6327–6342.
[14] Report, UN World Water Development. Water for Prosperity and Peace. 2024.
[15] UNESCO (2024). Water crises threaten world peace.
[16] United Nations (2022). Water’s role in global migration.
[17] Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (2018). Global report on Food Crises 2018.
[18] Christoforidou, M. (2022). Food security under water scarcity: a comparative analysis of Egypt and Jordan. Food Security, vol 15, 171–185.
[19] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2024). UK Food Security Report 2024.
[20] Goncalves, A. et al. (2024). Extreme weather events on energy systems: a comprehensive review on impacts, mitigation, and adaptation measures. Sustainable Energy Research, 11, 4.
[21] Yao, J. (2021). Electricity Consumption and Temperature: Evidence from Satellite Data.
[22] Foreign Agricultural Service (2022). The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity.
[23] Beyer, R. and Milan, A. (2023). Climate Change and Human Mobility: Quantitative evidence on global historical trends and future projections.
[24] Frueh, S. (2024). The Challenge of Predicting Climate Migration. National Academies.
[25] Climate Migration Council (2023). Climate Migration Explainer.
[26] International Organization for Migration (2017). Environmental Migrants and Global Governance: Facts, Policies and Practices.
[27] Burke, M et al. (2015). Climate and Conflict. Annual Review of Economics, 7, 577-617.
[28] Day, A. and Caus, J. (2020). Conflict Prevention in an Era of Climate Change: Adapting the UN to Climate-Security Risks. United Nations University.
[29] Mach, K. J. et al. (2019). Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict. Nature, 571, 195
[30] Uexkull, N. (2014). Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography, 43, 16-26.
[31] Van Schaik, L. (2019). Making peace with climate adaptation. Clingendael.
[32] UN Women (2022). Explainer: How gender inequality and climate change are interconnected.
[33] Kotarska, G. and Young, L. (2023). Critical Minerals in the Energy Transition: Environmental and Human Security Risks. RUSI.
[34] Zabyelina, Y. (2023). The Harms and Crimes of Mining. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology.
[35] Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (2023). £100 million for vulnerable countries tackling climate change.
Photo by: Md. Hasanuzzaman Himel on Unsplash
