Table of contents
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS126
Overview
Surface transport is currently the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector in the UK economy.
In 2023, surface transport accounted for 24% of UK emissions: 59% of this came from cars, 19% HGVs, 18% vans, with smaller shares from other vehicles including buses, motorcycles, and rail. For the 7th Carbon budget (2038 to 2042), the Climate Change Committee (CCC) project that surface transport emissions will need to have fallen by 86% from 2023 levels by 2040.[1]
The CCC state the deployment of EVs will deliver the largest share of emissions reduction in road transport, with new electric vehicles (EVs) assumed to reach price parity with fossil fuelled vehicles between 2026 and 2028. However, demand will also need to be shifted towards alternative modes of travel such as public transport, walking and cycling.[1]
Shipping is currently the 10th highest-emitting sector in the UK economy. In 2023, shipping accounted for 3% of UK emissions, 11.2 MtCO2e. International shipping contributed around 51% of shipping emissions in 2022, domestic shipping around 46%, and naval shipping around 3%. Shipping emissions are projected to fall, relative to 2022 levels, by 62% to 5.4 MtCO2e by 2040, through use of low carbon fuels, such as ammonia, electrification, efficiency-improving technologies and operational measures (PN 655).[1]
Due to the low number of contributions to the horizon scan on this subject, and given overlap with other articles in this category, POST has not drafted an article for this topic. Instead, the main opportunities and challenges identified by contributors are briefly summarised below:
- Contributors stated most travel emissions are generated on leisure and business trips.[2][3] Car ownership studies also show that people make decisions about car ownership, including which car to buy, based on the few times a year when it is used to go on family leisure trips. They suggested there is lack of policy to reduce travel demand for longer distance trips, such as rural leisure destinations including national parks. Visitor travel currently accounts for nearly one third of the total carbon budgets for the UK’s National Parks.[4]
- Transport decarbonisation policies aim to alter vehicle fuels and efficiencies, but not the number of cars in the vehicle fleet. Using fewer individual cars more intensively, such as through car sharing schemes, would be beneficial in terms of life-cycle emissions, free-up road space and pull-through new technologies quicker, as higher use results in cars being scrapped sooner. A trend of reduced car owning from two cars to one car has emerged that may be linked to increased working from home.[5][6]
- Contributors stated that there should be investment in in low carbon transport infrastructure, such as rail, cycling and walking to promote their use, as opposed to road investment, which is likely to promote continued car use.[7]
- The role of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in decarbonising the UK car fleet. PHEVs currently make up 41% of EVs in the UK car fleet, have high mileage (having become the preferred replacement for diesel cars, particularly within fleets) with only a small proportion driven on the battery on average. The CCC have stated PHEVs are three- to five times less efficient than previously assumed and should be phased out.[8]
- Understanding the appropriate pace, challenges and desirability of substituting all internal combustion engine cars with electric vehicles.[9][10][11][12][13]
- By 2040, the CCC project that 63% of heavy good vehicles (HGVs) in the fleet need to be electric. However, they acknowledge there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact make-up of technologies in the fleet that will meet requirements for specific long-distance journeys or for particularly heavy cargoes,[1] such as electric highways or hydrogen.[14][15][16][17][18]
- Ocean transport and seaport operations decarbonisation. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a net zero target for shipping “by or around” 2050.[19] The 2025 UK Maritime decarbonisation strategy sets out goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030, 80% by 2040 and to zero by 2050.[20] The CCC indicate that low-carbon fuels and electricity will make up 54% of total shipping energy use in 2040, but suggest the rate at which ships switch to these fuels is determined by the pace at which the technologies and fuels become available and cost effective, as well as the impact of assumed fuel standard regulations.[1] Seaports and the maritime sector have been identified as lagging behind in reducing emissions, but are beginning to determine appropriate mitigation strategies. No frameworks or monitoring tools are yet in place to assess progress towards net zero targets.[21][22][23] In March 2025 the government launched an open call for evidence on challenges and opportunities for net zero ports.[24]
References
[1] Climate Change Committee (2025). The Seventh Carbon Budget
[2] Wadud, Z., et al. (2022). A disaggregate analysis of ‘excess’ car travel and its role in decarbonisation. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 109,103377
[3] Wadud, Z., et al. (2024). Understanding the large role of long-distance travel in carbon emissions from passenger travel. Nature Energy volume 9, pages 1129 – 1138
[4] Bradshaw, R. (2025). Five reasons why the new transport strategy must support National Park visitors. Campaign for National Parks.
[5] Marsden, G., et al. (2019). Shared mobility – where now, where next? Second report of the Commission on Travel Demand. CREDS
[6] Anabie, J. et al. (2022). Less is more: Changing travel in a post-pandemic society. CREDS
[7] Davis, A., et al. (2017). The UK transport policy menu: Roads, roads, and a dash of multimodalism. Social Business, Volume 7, Numbers 3-4, pp. 313-332(20)
[8] Climate Change Committee. (2023). 2023 Progress Report to Parliament.
[9] Brand, C. (2021). Obsessing over electric cars is impeding the race to net zero: More active travel is essential. University of Oxford
[10] Tyers, R. et al. (2024). Electric vehicles and infrastructure. House of Commons Library
[11] HM Government. (2021). Transitioning to zero emission cars and vans: 2035 delivery plan
[12] Hausfather, F. (2019). Factcheck: How electric vehicles help to tackle climate change. CarbonBrief.
[13] Carey, J. (2023). The other benefit of electric vehicles. PNAS, 120 (3) e2220923120
[14] BBC News. (2022). Glasgow firm awarded £30m to develop clean hydrogen HGV
[15] Min, R. (2023). Sweden is building the world’s first permanent electrified road for EVs to charge while driving. Euronews.
[16] Paris, M. (2024). Wireless charging: The roads where electric vehicles never need to plug in. BBC Future.
[17] H2Accelerate. (2023). Policy support for the UK hydrogen HGV sector.
[18] Ainalis, D., et al. (2024). Technoeconomic comparison of an electric road system and hydrogen for decarbonising the UK’s long-haul road freight. Research in Transportation Business & Management Volume 48, 100914
[19] IMO. IMO Strategy on reduction of GHG emissions from ships
[20] DfT. (2025). Maritime Decarbonisation Strategy. GOV.UK
[21] Conti, M., et al. (2023). Challenges and Opportunities for UK Seaports Toward Future Sustainability. Handbook of Sustainability Science in the Future
[22] Katuwawala, H., et al. (2022). System-based barriers for seaports in contributing to Sustainable Development Goals. Maritime Business Review, Volume 7, Issue 3
[23] Buonomano, A., et al. (2023). Future pathways for decarbonization and energy efficiency of ports: Modelling and optimization as sustainable energy hubs. Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 420, 138389
[24] DfT. (2025). Net zero ports: challenges and opportunities. GOV.UK
Photo by: Nabeel Syed, via Unsplash
