DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS66

Overview

Public support for and satisfaction with the way a democratic system works is influenced by their satisfaction with elections.[1] If support for the electoral system declines, it may destabilise political systems through declining trust in the outcome of elections.[2]

The horizon scan identified several issues related to the integrity and fairness of the electoral system and of the electoral process, focusing mainly on general elections.

Several different electoral systems are used in the UK. First Past the Post (FPTP) is used for general elections. Devolved and local elections are conducted using systems including Additional Member and Single Transferable Vote.[3] There is much academic[4] and policy[5] research on the drawbacks and benefits of these systems, including a range of reviews commissioned by previous governments and summarised by the House of Commons Library.[6]

Each system can be evaluated on several measures including the link between the number of votes a party receives and the proportion of seats they win, the strength of the link between voters and their elected representatives, the simplicity of the system, or whether it delivers a clear result leading to an accountable government.[7]

The choice of a specific electoral system is a trade-off based on which elements are considered critical and which are of secondary importance.[8] For example, a majoritarian system such as FPTP is simple to understand.[9] It ensures a strong, direct link between voters and their representatives and is more likely to return a majority government, thus, shaping policy expectations and strengthening accountability mechanisms.[10]

However, the increasing disproportionality of electoral outcomes and ‘squeezing out’ of smaller parties[11] despite their greater vote share in many recent elections is a serious challenge.[12]

In the 2024 general election, Labour secured 63.4% of seats, on 33.7% of votes. Researchers noted that “this was the largest over-representation for any party in postwar history”.[13]

Some studies indicate that many voters dislike disproportional electoral results, even if this benefits their party.[14] A 2024 YouGov survey found that 45% of voters said they would prefer a proportional representation system where the number of seats won matches parties’ share of the popular vote more closely, with 26% saying they would prefer to retain the current system that is more likely to deliver a single-party majority government.[15]

Research by National Centre for Social Research has shown that support for proportional representation has increased over the past 40 years, with a majority now in favour of reform.[16]

Most people (73%) remain confident that elections are run well, and 79% report being satisfied with the process of voting,[17] and trust the electoral system to be fraud- and corruption-free (54%).[18]

Nevertheless, concerns have been raised by electoral administrators.[19] [20] These include[21] incomplete electoral registers (and complexities relating to the introduction of voter ID[22]), complex and further changing legislative frameworks,[23] and immediate and extensive pressures on those responsible for “booking polling stations and counting venues, recruiting and training staff, and printing poll cards and ballot papers for millions of voters”.[24] There is also significant regional variation in how much these challenges affect electoral administration.[25]

Expert assessment of the integrity of UK elections in 2023 (expressed as an index from 0 ‘low’ to 100 ‘high’ electoral integrity levels) is 75, which is above the worldwide average, but places the UK 15 among European countries.[26] The expert assessment noted several integrity issues including the regulation of campaign finance, media regulation, unfairness to smaller parties, and declining turnout.[27] Researchers have suggested that the current system of political finance is ”vulnerable to abuse”, recommending several changes.[28]

The Electoral Commission[29] and the Electoral Integrity Project[30] also highlight issues with both the perceived and actual independence of the Electoral Commission following the adoption of the Elections Act 2022.[31]

Challenges and opportunities

The Law Commission in 2020 identified numerous legislative reforms that could deliver more efficient elections, improve confidence in the process and make it easier for people to vote.[32] It noted that election law is out-of-date, complicated, has gaps around new technology and is fragmented across “at least 25 statutes”. It recommended rationalisation of the law into a “single, consistent legislative framework”.

The Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee identified several other opportunities for reform in 2022. The Chair said that government must provide “greater scrutiny of online campaigning, a more proportionate approach to those accused of breaking the rules, and better protections against foreign influence in our elections.”[33]

The King’s Speech 2024 stated that the government “will strengthen the integrity of elections and encourage wide participation in the democratic process”. The Association of Electoral Administrators welcomed this commitment and renewed its call for an independent Royal or Parliamentary Commission to review core electoral delivery processes.[34] It said it would publish a “blueprint for electoral improvement” by the end of 2024.

There could also be an opportunity to consider election reforms in conjunction with the reform of the House of Lords proposed in the 2024 Labour Party manifesto, which said Labour “is committed to creating an alternative second chamber that is more representative of the regions and nations”.[35]

However, researchers stated that reforms to the FPTP system seem unlikely in the short-term given that the government has previously noted the “value of clear government accountability to voters and strong majorities” and given that it benefited under the current system. Nevertheless, researchers have noted that the growing number of votes going to smaller parties makes the outcome of FPTP “less predictable and single-party majorities harder to build, thereby weakening both the democratic case for [FPTP] and the large parties’ self-interest in maintaining it”.[36]

Key uncertainties/unknowns

No detail was included in the Kings Speech briefing on how the government intended to reform the electoral system.

Key questions for parliament

  • What reforms to the electoral process should be taken forward, and what should be their scope?
  • Should electoral reform also consider wider issues such as campaign finance and media regulation?
  • What resources do electoral administrators need?
  • How might reforms influence public confidence in the electoral system?
  • What electoral systems might be adopted for an alternative second chamber, and what implications could this system have for FPTP and the House of Commons?

References

[1] Ridge, H. M. 2024. Fair Elections, Representation, and the win-loss Satisfaction with Democracy gap. Representation, 1–17, https://10.1080/00344893.2024.2313764 (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[2] Anderson, C. J., Blais, A., Bowler, S., Donovan, T., Listhaug, O. 2005. Losers’ Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy. Oxford University Press.

[3] Johnston, N. 2023. Voting systems in the UK. House of Commons Library Research Briefing, SN04458, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04458/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[4] Farrell, D. M. 2011. Electoral Systems. A Comparative Introduction. 2nd ed. Bloomsbury Publishing.

[5] ERS. 2024. Lessons not Learnt: The 2015, 2017 & 2019 General Elections. Electoral Reform Society, https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/lessons-not-learnt-the-2015-2017-2019-general-elections/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[6] Johnston, N. 2023. Voting systems in the UK. House of Commons Library Research Briefing, SN04458, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04458/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[7] Klingemann, H.-D. (Ed.) 2012. The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Oxford University Press.

[8] Hix, S., Johnston, R., McLean, I., Cummine, A. 2010. Choosing an Electoral System. The British Academy Research Report, https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/246/Choosing-an-electoral-system.pdf (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[9] Renwick, A. 2024. Election 2024: the performance of the electoral system. The Constitution Unit Blog, https://constitution-unit.com/2024/07/10/election-2024-the-performance-of-the-electoral-system/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[10] Healy, A., Malhotra, N., 2013. Retrospective voting reconsidered. Annual review of political science16(1), 285-306, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-212920 (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[11] Renwick, A. 2024. Election 2024: the performance of the electoral system. The Constitution Unit Blog, https://constitution-unit.com/2024/07/10/election-2024-the-performance-of-the-electoral-system/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[12] Cracknell, R., Baker, C. 2024. General election 2024 results. The House of Commons Library Research Briefing https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[13] Renwick, E., Election 2024: the performance of the electoral system, July 2024

[14] Plescia, C., Blais, A., Högström, J., 2020. Do people want a ‘fairer’ electoral system? An experimental study in four countries. European Journal of Political Research59(4), 733-751 https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12372 (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[15] YouGov. 2024. Should we change our current British voting system?. YouGov Biannual Tracker, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-we-change-our-current-british-voting-system (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[16] Curtice, J., Montagu, I. Sivathasan, C., Damaged Politics? The impact of the 2019-24 Parliament on political trust and confidence, National Centre for Social Research, 2024

[17] Electoral Commission. 2023. Public attitudes 2023. The Electoral Commission. https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/research-reports-and-data/public-attitudes/public-attitudes-2023 (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[18] YouGov. 2024b. Trust in the British electoral system to be safe from corruption or fraud. YouGov Biannual Tracker, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/trust-in-the-british-electoral-system-to-be-safe-from-corruption-or-fraud (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[19] Stride, G. 2023. My research reveals serious concerns among those who run elections. Local Government Information Unit, https://lgiu.org/blog-article/meet-greg-from-election-research-to-lgius-democracy-research/  (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[20] James, T. S. 2018. Are UK elections conducted with integrity, with sufficient turnout?. The Democratic Audit, https://www.democraticaudit.com/2018/08/15/audit2018-are-uk-elections-conducted-with-integrity-with-sufficient-turnout/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[21] James, T.S. 2024. UK Electoral Reform. An agenda for the next Parliament. Electoral Integrity Project, https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/reports (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[22] LGIU. undated. The impact of Voter ID: FAQs. Local Government Information Unit, https://lgiu.org/blog-article/the-impact-of-voter-id-faqs/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[23] Stanyon, P. 2024. May 2nd Elections: all the new rules, new methods and new challenges for electoral staff. Local Government Information Unit, https://lgiu.org/blog-article/may-2nd-elections-all-the-new-rules-new-methods-and-new-challenges-for-electoral-staff/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[24] Smith, A. 2024. The challenges of planning and running UK elections. Local Government Information Unit, https://lgiu.org/blog-article/the-challenges-of-planning-and-running-a-uk-elections/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[25] Clark, A., 2015. Public administration and the integrity of the electoral process in British elections. Public Administration93(1), 86-102. https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12106 (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[26] Garnett, H. A., James, T. S., Caal-Lam, S. 2024. Electoral Integrity Global Report 2024. Electoral Integrity Project, https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/reports (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[27] James, T.S. 2024. UK Electoral Reform. An agenda for the next Parliament. Electoral Integrity Project, https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/reports (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[28] Russell, M., White, H., James, L., Rebuilding and Renewing the Constitution, UCL/IfG, 2023

[29] Electoral Commission. 2023. Public attitudes 2023. The Electoral Commission. https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/research-reports-and-data/public-attitudes/public-attitudes-2023 (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[30] James, T.S. 2024. UK Electoral Reform. An agenda for the next Parliament. Electoral Integrity Project, https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/reports (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[31] Elections Act 2022, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/37/contents (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[32] Electoral Law – Summary of final ‘report (cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com)

[33] “Challenges lie ahead” for elections regulator in navigating complex law – Committees – UK Parliament

[34] AEA. 2024. 2024 post-polls letter to Deputy Prime Minister, The Association of Electoral Administrators, 18 July 2024, https://www.aea-elections.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-Post-Polls-Ministerial-Letter-1.pdf (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[35] Labour Party. 2024. Labour’s Manifesto. The Labour Party, https://labour.org.uk/change/serving-the-country/ (accessed on 03 August 2024).

[36] Renwick, A., Election 2024: the performance of the electoral system, July 2024


Photo by: Glenys via Adobe Stock

Horizon Scan 2024

Emerging policy issues for the next five years.