Prisons capacity and performance

DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS73

Overview

Prisons are overcrowded and the prison population is projected to increase in the coming years (PB58). Since the 1990s, the prison population has consistently been higher than the estate’s “uncrowded capacity” (a level which reflects the prison service’s aim to provide a “good, decent standard of accommodation”).[1][2] However, it is currently at risk of surpassing the higher “useable operational capacity” of the prison estate (a level which reflects the total number of prisoners that can be held, taking into account control, security and operational considerations).[2] As of 30 August 2024, there were 88,350 people in prison in England and Wales, just below the useable operational capacity (89,543).[3] By 2028, the prison population is projected to grow to between 94,600 and 114,800, with a central estimate of 105,800, although government stresses that there is “considerable uncertainty” in this estimate.[4] The projected increase is based on several assumptions, including a continued increase in police charging and prosecutions, reductions in the backlog of court cases, and changes in sentencing policy and behaviours.[4]

Between 2022 and 2024, the government took several emergency measures to help ease the short-term capacity pressure on prisons, including:

• using police custody suites to house prisoners[5]
• deploying temporary modular prison cells[6]
• releasing people in prison on license before the end of their custodial sentence[7]
• ensuring that a prison place is available to hold someone on remand before they are brought to a magistrates’ court for their initial hearing[8][9]
• increasing the window for the early release scheme, to allow for fixed-term foreign national prisoners to be released from prison and removed from the UK up to 18 months before the end of their custodial sentence[10]

In July 2024, the Lord Chancellor announced further measures coming into force from September 2024 to address prison capacity, including bringing forward the automatic release point for some offenders serving set-length prison sentences.[11][12]

The government is also seeking to address the shortage in prison capacity by building more prison places. It has invested £4 billion to create 20,000 new prison places by the mid-2020s, through building six new prisons, and expanding and refurbishing the existing estate.[13] In 2022, HMP Five Wells in Northamptonshire was built, with HMP Fosse Way in Leicester completed in 2023.[14] A third new prison, HMP Millsike in York, is due to open in 2025. [15]

However, in 2024, the Prisons Minister in the Conservative government told the Justice Committee that the target of 20,000 new places would not be reached by 2025, due to delays in securing planning permission.[16] The government also permanently closed just under 10,700 prison places between 2010 and April 2023, offsetting the creation of new places elsewhere.[17] The Prison Reform Trust has noted that many of these relate to closing old or dilapidated prison places, and claimed that “even if all of the government’s planned capacity projects are delivered on time there will still be a short fall of 2,300 prison places by March 2025.”[18]

In 2023, the government proposed via the Sentencing Bill to create a presumption for prison sentences of less than 12 months to be suspended, meaning an individual would not go to prison, provided they comply with any requirements imposed on them.[19] Some commentators welcomed the proposal, referring to evidence that suggests community sentences are associated with lower levels of reoffending (PB52).[20] Clinks, which represents voluntary organisations working across prisons and probation, highlighted that the proposal would increase demand on probation and voluntary sector services in the community, which would need additional resource.[21] However, the Sentencing Bill did not progress before the July 2024 election.[22]

In 2023, the Prison Reform Trust criticised the government’s reliance on emergency measures to address prison capacity problems. It stated that the government “has no clear strategy to safely and effectively manage the prison population”, despite repeated warnings from scrutiny and oversight bodies in recent years.[23]

Challenges and opportunities

The prison estate is widely considered to be ageing and not fit for purpose. The Prison Reform Trust states that that the “ageing cohort of local Victorian city prisons” are some of the most overcrowded and receive the worst inspections. HM Inspectorate of Prisons has suggested that 14 prisons would ideally be closed as they “struggle to be fit for purpose”.[24]

Research suggests that the design of prisons themselves can help to create a more rehabilitative environment, and there is an opportunity for new prisons to be built with rehabilitative principles. In the context of the women’s estate, Jewkes et. al. (2019) suggest that new prisons should be designed with trauma-informed principles (which recognise that the physical environment can affect emotional wellbeing), by including, for example, aesthetically pleasing spaces, personalised rooms and access to outdoor space.[25] Two new Community Custody Units in Scotland, rolled out in 2022, are intended to provide a trauma-informed custodial environment for women to improve outcomes for resettlement.[26] An evaluation of the units is due to be completed in 2024 , which may provide useful learning for prisons in England and Wales.[27]

There is an ongoing challenge of recruiting and retaining prison staff.[28] While the number of operational staff has increased since 2018, there were 11% fewer staff in March 2024 compared to 2010, with 13% leaving the prison service in 2023/24.[29] The prison workforce is becoming more inexperienced, with only 26% of prison officers having 10 or more years’ service in March 2024, the lowest proportion since 2010.[18] In written evidence to the Justice Committee, the Prison Governors Association said that the current level of staffing hindered the ability to deliver a full regime.[30] The Prison Officers Association (the trade union for prison officers) highlighted poor pay and terms and conditions as challenges in recruitment, retention and morale.[31]

Finally, the provision of rehabilitative activities and programmes in prisons was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, as part of emergency measures to limit the risk of transmission. The 2022-23 annual report by HM Chief Inspector of Prisons found that “prisoners remain locked in their cells for long periods of time without the purposeful activity that would support a successful reintegration back into society”. [32] The Chief Inspector also noted that “much of the failure [to reopen regimes after COVID-19] must come down to leadership” within the prison system, and pointed to examples of prisons which have been able to get people out of cells and return to pre-pandemic levels of activity, despite staffing pressures.

This horizon scan article focuses on prison-based interventions. Other articles on Children and young people and the criminal justice system and Policing: a public health approach discuss the role of prevention and early intervention.

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The prison population is affected by external factors and other government policies, such as the volume and type of cases entering criminal courts, and changes to sentencing policy. There is therefore much uncertainty in prison population projections.[4]

A key factor in the increase in the prison population is the higher number of people being held on remand in prison while waiting trial or sentencing. In June 2024, government statisticians reported that the remand population was at its ‘highest level for at least 50 years’, at 17,070.[33] In January 2023, the Justice Committee warned that an increase in remand prisoners “is placing severe pressure on an already struggling prison system” and called for greater use of community alternatives to custodial remand.[34]

The Justice Committee suggested that the increase in the remand population was primarily caused by the backlog in criminal courts. The National Audit Office (2024) also warned that the “Crown Court backlog is contributing to acute prison population pressures”.[35] The Conservative government stated in May 2024 that it had “increased the investment in our courts and the number of sitting days, and we are seeing progress [to reduce court backlogs]”.[36]

Another factor behind the increased prison population is the impact of longer sentences. One analysis of sentencing trends between 2002 and 2022 suggested that, while sentencing for all offences remained fairly stable, sentencing for more serious offences has become more severe, including more frequent and longer prison sentences.[37] In September 2024, five senior former judges in England and Wales signed a Howard League for Penal Reform report calling for a reversal in the trend of sentence inflation.[38]

Key questions for Parliament

• Should more prisons be built? If so, how should the government address barriers to building prisons?
• How can the government use evidence to inform the design of new prisons that promote rehabilitation?
• Should the government consider interventions to reduce the use and length of custody? What implications would this have for probation service workload?
• How can the government support the recruitment and retention of prison officers?
• How can the government work with prison governors to establish regimes that promote rehabilitation?
• Can the government address the courts backlog, or its approach to custodial remand, to ease prison population pressures?

Further reading

In January 2024, POST published a briefing on Prison population growth: drivers, implications and policy considerations (PB58). This briefing involved interviews and peer-review across government, regulators, ombudsman, third-sector organisations and academic stakeholders.

References

[1] Justice Committee (2019). Prison population 2022: planning for the future (Chapter 2, Certified Normal Accommodation)

[2] UK Parliament (2019). PQ on Prisons: Overcrowding UIN 268360 tabled on 24 June 2019

[3] Ministry of Justice (2024). Prison population figures: 2024

[4] Ministry of Justice (2024). Prison Population Projections: 2023 to 2028

[5] UK Parliament (2023). Prisoners: police custody UIN 150580, tabled on 22 February 2023

[6] Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service (2023). Further rollout of Rapid Deployment Cells to boost prison places

[7] Hansard (2023). Prisons capacity oral statement

[8] Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service (2024). Process activated to manage prisoner movements

[9] BBC News (2024). Court cases delayed after pressure on prison places

[10] Hansard (2024). Prisons and probation: foreign national offenders (oral statement)

[11] Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service (2024). New Lord Chancellor sets out measures to avert prison capacity crisis

[12] Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service (2024). Lord Chancellor sets out immediate action to defuse ticking prison ‘time-bomb’

[13] Ministry of Justice (2023). The Government’s approach to criminal justice Oral statement

[14] Ministry of Justice (2024). New Prison near Market Harborough – The New Prisons Programme

[15] Ministry of Justice, and HM Prison and Probation Service (2024). Contract awarded for UK’s first all-electric ‘green’ prison

[16] Justice Committee (2024). Oral evidence: Future prison population and estate capacity

[17] UK Parliament (2023). Prison accommodation UIN 192591, tabled on 25 April 2023

[18] Prison Reform Trust (2023). Prison: the facts – Summer 2023

[19] House of Commons Library (2023). Sentencing Bill 2023-24

[20] Justice and Home Affairs Committee (2023). Cutting crime: better community sentences

[21] Clinks (2023). The Sentencing & Criminal Justice Bills – a deeper look

[22] UK Parliament (2024). Sentencing Bill – Parliamentary Bills

[23] Home Affairs Committee (2023). Written evidence submitted by the Prison Reform Trust

[24] The Guardian (2023). One in 10 prisons in England and Wales should be shut down, watchdog says

[25] Jewkes et al. (2019). Designing ‘Healthy’ Prisons for Women: Incorporating Trauma-Informed Care and Practice (TICP) into Prison Planning and Design, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(20), 3818.

[26] Scottish Government (2022). New custodial unit for women

[27] The Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research. Scottish Prisons Assessment and Review of Outcomes for Women

[28] Prison Reform Trust (2023). Prison capacity crisis won’t be solved by newly opened HMP Fosse Way figures reveal

[29] Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service. HM Prison and Probation Service workforce statistics

[30] Justice Committee (2023). Prison Governors Association supplementary written evidence

[31] Justice Committee (2024). Letter from Committee Chair to Edward Argar

[32] HM Inspectorate of Prisons (2023). HM Chief Inspector of Prisons annual report: 2022 to 2023

[33] Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service (2024). Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2024

[34] Justice Committee (2023). Prison system failing to support rising numbers of remand prisoners

[35] National Audit Office (2024). Reducing the backlog in the Crown Court

[36] Hansard (2024). Urgent question, End of custody supervised license: extension

[37] Pina-Sánchez, J. et al (2023). Sentencing Trends in England and Wales 2002-2022 Sentencing Academy

[38] The Howard League for Penal Reform (2024). Sentence inflation: a judicial critique