DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS54

Overview

Technologies, including AI and automation, in the workforce have long been seen as influencing the way we will work in the future (How technology is accelerating changes in the way we work).

The 2023 World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Future of Jobs Report found from surveying over 800 companies across 45 economies that 23% of today’s jobs will change.[1] It also found 44% of workers’ core skills are expected to change over 2023-2027 and the top five skills companies are likely to look for are:

  • analytical thinking
  • creative thinking
  • AI and big data
  • leadership and social influence
  • resilience, flexibility and agility1

According to the WEF report, the top ten technologies organisations are most likely to adopt by 2027 in order of likelihood are:1

  1. digital platforms and apps
  2. education and workforce development technologies
  3. big data analytics
  4. internet of things and connected devices
  5. cloud computing
  6. encryption and cyber security
  7. e-commerce and digital trade
  8. AI
  9. environmental management technologies
  10. climate-change mitigation technologies

Covid-19 acted as a catalyst for organisations adopting and accepting more digital technologies and robotics to work remotely, do collaborative work, help meet increased demand for goods and services, and minimise the need for people to work in environments that put them at risk (How technology is accelerating changes in the way we work).[2],[3] Online meeting and conference tools, digital calendars and cloud storage are now used routinely across organisations and enable workers to communicate and access information from anywhere with a connection and fulfil business activities.2,[4]

Advances in AI tools mean they are capable of multiple tasks and generating realistic content, such as text, video and audio, and is known as ‘generative AI’ (PB 57). Many organisations in the UK and globally are experimenting with, and adopting, these AI tools in the workplace.[5],[6] ONS statistics from June 2023 showed approximately one in six businesses are currently using at least one AI application to aid with tasks such as improving cybersecurity or developing a new product.[7]

Challenges and opportunities

A 2023 report by McKinsey estimated that deploying and applying generative AI technologies across various industries in the workplace has the potential to add between $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy.[8] By comparison, the UKs entire GDP in 2021 was approximately $3.1 trillion.8

Examples of data analysis and AI opportunities in various industries include:

  • in finance, where AI could be used to enhance data and analytic capabilities, detect and flag fraudulent activities, assess risks and approve loans (PB 57)
  • in marketing and sales, where AI could help to gather and analyse market trends, draft personalised marketing and sales communications, assist with campaigns and employ virtual sales representatives (PB 57)
  • in recruitment and management, where AI could be used to devise job adverts, source candidates and filter CVs (PB 57)

Academics and industry stated that the introduction of automation to repetitive or time-consuming tasks could lead to a reduction in human error and increased efficiency, reducing costs by freeing up employees to focus on higher-value activities.[9],[10] In a survey of 608 global business executives, conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit, 49% of respondents expect new technologies, including mobile, cloud based and big data technologies, to enable more work to be completed in the same amount of time.[11]

The UK-based Chartered Institute of Logistics and Technology conducted a survey in 2022 which showed 80% of respondent organisations have staff shortages in warehouses, and 60% are short of drivers.[12] 2 Researchers suggest that the reason for these staff shortages is the unattractiveness of repetitive, physically demanding roles.[13] The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Technology and researchers have stated automation, AI technologies, and robotics could help to fill the gaps.13,[14]

PwC, a consulting company, analysed over 500 million job advertisements in 2024 across 15 countries to find evidence of AI’s impact on the job market.[15] Results of the analysis revealed that the growth of AI specialist jobs had outpaced all others since 2016.15  However, across the UK workforce, there is also a growing demand for specialised skills in AI and data science due to gaps in organisations digital capabilities and competence (PN 697). This demand could affect companies’ capacity to use and apply data analysis, modelling and AI in the future (PB 57). Some academics, think tanks and technology trade associations have said that the Government should help workers retrain and gain relevant skills, and ensure that existing inequalities are not exacerbated (PN 708).

Research indicates remote and hybrid working for staff has benefits including increased wellbeing, self-reported productivity and work satisfaction, reduced work-life conflict, new ways to collaborate and more inclusive ways of working (PB 49). However there are also challenges including increased work intensity, longer working hours, distractions, health issues, decreased social interactions, less promotion and learning opportunities and an inability to disconnect from work (PB 49).

Stakeholders have raised concerns that technology and automation developments may disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups (PN 708). For example, some reports state certain jobs, such as clerical work, could become redundant by automation and the majority of clerical work is carried out by women (PN 708).

There could also be regional disparities in employment benefits (PN 708). For example, A 2021 report commissioned by the former Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy highlighted that London and the South East could benefit from net AI and automation job gains more than Northern England and the Midlands.[16]

Following an increase in AI used to manage office-based workers including for work allocation, monitoring, and disciplinary decisions, the Trades Union Congress and All Party Parliamentary Group on the Future of Work, amongst others, raised concerns about possible detrimental impacts on worker dignity and mental health (PN 708).[17],[18],[19]

Other concerns of using AI and automation in the workplace include (PB 49, PN 708):

  • AI algorithms outputting inaccurate or biased results that are used for decision-making and can lead to discriminatory outcomes or disinformation
  • a lack of transparency in how complex AI models make decisions, which could lead to an individual adversely affected by an AI system not knowing how it works, what went wrong, who is liable, and how to exercise any rights they may have
  • generative AI outputting copyrighted material leading to intellectual property rights issues

The UKs competitive edge in the global market depends on organisations keeping up with technological advancements.[20] Various collaborative research projects, such as InterAct, are investigating social challenges resulting from new technologies in the workplace, such as a lack of senior management support or employee resistance, and how people can be put at the forefront of technology adoption to overcome barriers.[21],[22],[23]

For small and medium businesses to adopt technological advancements, techUK recommended that the government create a plan for a digitised economy, provide regulations and provide incentives, such as tax breaks or investments in digital standards.23

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The European Parliamentary Research Service stated that it is currently hard to quantify the current effects or impact of AI, robotics and sensors on the workplace.[24]

It is also difficult to assess how technologies, including AI, could change the nature of the workforce in the future, and there is a lack of consensus amongst experts with some reports differing in their estimations (PN 708). A survey of 1,896 economists by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) found that they are almost evenly divided when asked if robotics and AI would displace blue- and white-collar jobs: 48% said yes and 52% said no.20

It is difficult to predict the pace at which technology will be adopted. Impacting factors include the size and resources of an organisation, cost of adoption, current skills, regulations, including general data protection regulation (GDPR), and public opinion (How technology is accelerating changes in the way we work).

Key questions for Parliament

  • What type and level of government support may be needed in the upskilling and training of people to work with more technologies in the workplace? Is current investment on AI and data science skills sufficient?
  • Are changes in the curriculum needed to ensure children and young people are prepared for future jobs and have adequate AI and data science skills? Do teachers need support and upskilling to teach about AI?
  • How can the impact of AI and technologies on the workforce and for different regions and groups be reliably assessed?
  • What steps should the government take to ensure some regions and disadvantaged groups are not disproportionally affected by impacts of technologies in the workforce, such as redundancies?
  • What regulation should the government put in place to address concerns of technologies in the workplace, such as biased AI algorithms causing discriminatory outcomes?
  • How can the government support organisations to adopt new technologies in the workplace in a manner that is safe and fair?

Related documents

References

[1] World Economic Forum The Future of Jobs Report 2023.

[2] Tjondronegoro, D., et al. (2024). Collaborative technology. in Routledge Handbook of High Performance Workplaces. Routledge.

[3] Schubert, P., et al. (2022). Enterprise Collaboration Platforms: An Empirical Study of Technology Support for Collaborative Work. Procedia Comput. Sci., Vol 196, 305–313.

[4] Dragilev, D. (2024). 8 Types of Collaboration Tools [2024 Update].

[5] Singla A., et al. (2024). The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value. McKinsey & Company.

[6] Hooson, M., (2024). UK Artificial Intelligence (AI) Statistics And Trends In 2024. Forbes.

[7] ONS (2023). Understanding AI uptake and sentiment among people and businesses in the UK: June 2023

[8] Chui, M., et al. (2023). The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier. McKinsey & Company.

[9] Aithal, P. S. (2023). How to Create Business Value Through Technological Innovations Using ICCT Underlying Technologies. International Journal of Applied Engineering and Management Letters, Volume 7, 2, pages 232-292.

[10] InFlow (online). InFlow.

[11] Economis Impact (2015). Changing roles: How technology is transforming business functions.

[12] The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (2022). More than 80% of organisations experiencing staff shortages in the warehouse, a survey by CILT(UK) reveals..

[13] Leesakul, N., et al. (2022). Workplace 4.0: Exploring the Implications of Technology Adoption in Digital Manufacturing on a Sustainable Workforce. Sustainability, Volume 14, 6.

[14] The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (online). How are automation technologies helping to address supply chain labour shortages?

[15] PwC (2024). AI Jobs Barometer.

[16] Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (2021). The potential impact of AI on UK employment and the demand for skills.

[17] Baiocco, S., et al. (2022). The Algorithmic Management of work and its implications in different contexts. International Labour Organization.

[18] Trades Union Congress (2020). Technology managing people – The worker experience.

[19] Institute for the Future of Work (2021). The New Frontier: Artificial intelligence at work.

[20] teckUK (2024). The crucial connection between digital adoption and the UK’s economic growth.

[21] UKRI (online). Search results for ‘AI’.

[22] University of Bath (online). Made Smarter Innovation: Centre for People-Led Digitalisation.

[23] INTERACT (online). About.

[24] European Parliament (2020). The ethics of artificial intelligence: issues and initiatives.


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Horizon Scan 2024

Emerging policy issues for the next five years.