Table of contents

DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS60

Overview

Automated vehicles (AVs), also known as autonomous, driverless or self-driving vehicles include cars vans and lorries (PB62).

The Automated Vehicles Act 2024 received royal assent in May 2024. It defines high-level responsibilities and processes and creates powers to make secondary legislation (PB 62). The Automated Vehicles Act defines an AV as one with self-driving features that meets necessary regulations (CBP9973). A ‘user-in-charge’ AV would have functionality to be driven or drive itself for some or all of the journey. In a ‘no-user-in-charge’ journey the AV would drive itself for the whole journey (CBP9973). Although not used in the act, many manufacturers and academics use a scale of six levels of increasing automation defined by the Society of Automobile Engineers to describe how automated a vehicle is (PB62).

AVs are being developed and trialled across the UK in industrial settings, such as public transport, farming, airport baggage handling and warehouse logistics.1–17 Future developments of AVs along with the secondary legislation of the act could see them transfer from trial periods into full usage on the roads in the UK and providing the services they are being designed for, such as connecting communities, delivering goods, or providing convenient transport.18

Some vehicles that can autonomously drive with no need for human intervention within specific geographical limits are operational in the US and China. For example, in 2023 Waymo, a US company that operates an automated service where people can book vehicles online, conducted over 700,000 automated journeys with paying passengers in San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles.19

Some industry professionals and academics think that bringing AVs to UK roads could have benefits including improved road safety and access to transport. In 2023, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders estimated that by 2040 the AV industry could deliver an annual economic benefit of £66 billion to the UK economy.20,21 However, some non-profit organisations and researchers have highlighted issues around the development of AVs, such as how safety should be measured, how the data collected by AVs should be managed, risks of cyber attack, who would be liable in the event of an accident, increased congestion, increased vehicle miles and impacts on jobs.

Opportunities and challenges

Human error causes 88% of road accidents and AVs could reduce accidents by reducing human error as a factor.22,23 The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders predicted that AVs could prevent 60,000 serious accidents and save 3,900 lives between 2024 and 2040.20 Academics, industries and the government have differing views on how safe AVs would need to be to meet public approval and how safety should be measured.

AVs could provide more transport options for many non-drivers, such as those with disabilities or those who lack the confidence to drive.24–29 Road freight could also benefit from AVs and enable companies to cover more miles in less time and cut driver costs (PN692).30

In 2022, the Government estimated that the AV sector could create 38,000 skilled jobs by 2035 in areas such as communications, robotics, AI and cyber security and resilience.18 Industries such as Bosch have also discussed the need for workers at services, such as support centres, cleaning services, charging facilities, safety drivers for on-going testing, builders for the creation of these sites, and upskilled workers for the maintenance of the vehicles.31  However, some researchers and companies have highlighted the importance of investment into reskilling workers to be able to develop automated systems.32–34  There is increasing demand for specialised data science and AI skills and an insufficient supply (PN697). Some MPs have said a clearer strategy from the government was needed to mitigate the impacts of job displacement from automation.35

AVs could improve vehicle energy efficiency and could help the transition to net zero if the electricity used to power them came from clean sources, such as wind and solar power.36 However, they could also have significant emissions.

Due to the amount of energy their onboard computers require, one academic study estimated that one billion AVs driving for one hour a day would be responsible for the equivalent carbon emissions output of Argentina.37  Those who previously could not have a vehicle might be incentivised to own an AV and there could be an increase in the number of vehicles or vehicles miles travelled.

Industry, academics and the Government have highlighted the importance of the public being able to trust AVs to use them.18,38–40 WMG, an academic group at the University of Warwick, said that “the public are core to this technology: if they don’t trust it, they will never use it.”38 Some research suggests views were mixed on whether AVs would make local transport systems better, worse or no different.41,42

It can be unclear to a person adversely affected by an automated decision what choices were made by developers, what went wrong, who is liable, and how to seek redress (PN721). Some academics have highlighted the complexity of determining who would be at fault for incidents involving automated road freight vehicles due to several parties being involved.43

AVs would collect and process large amounts of data daily, such as on the habits of the human using the vehicle, and researchers, non-profit organisations, and legal scholars have raised concerns about potential privacy risks of this data.44–46 For example, AV manufacturers or ride hailing companies may share the data with third parties who could use it to try to target individuals with advertisements based on their habits.46 Data about individuals habits could also put them at risk to physical harm or stalking.45 On the other hand, data could aid in issues such as determining liability, demonstrating safety, monitoring and optimising fuel efficiency and monitoring the health of humans in the car.47–50

Government, researchers and industry have agreed that AVs are attractive targets for cyber attack, and that ensuring cyber security whilst developing AVs is essential.18,51–53 Terrorist attacks could cause large-scale chaos across a transportation network.53 Money-making cyber attacks could target the hardware with the aim of disabling the vehicle until a ransom is paid.53 The Council on Geostrategy, a non-profit organisation, has said dependency on autonomous and electric vehicles, particularly vans and lorries, from other countries such as China could pose a threat to UK national security.54 This is due to these countries being able to control the vehicles movements and potentially freeze logistics and the acquisition of sensitive data by these countries, such as a car’s camera acquiring data inside a military base.54

Key uncertainties/unknowns

Definitions around automated vehicles are not universally agreed, change at a fast pace, and are interlinked. Various factors may impact the development and deployment of AVs onto UK roads including (PB62):

  • technology developments, such as AI and robotics
  • secondary legislation timeline and details
  • collaboration
  • international frameworks
  • investment
  • supply chains and manufacturing

There is uncertainty and a lack of agreement over if and when AVs, and with what features, will be commercially available in the UK.

There is a lack of data on how automated ride-hailing services, such as Waymo, are currently impacting congestion in the cities they operate in.

There is a lack of consensus on how AVs could impact congestion on UK roads.55–57  Various models forecast different scenarios, but they are not a prediction of the future. There is significant uncertainty, they make assumptions about the factors impacting congestion and they vary widely in impacts.

The 2021 ‘Connected and Automated Vehicle Decarbonisation Paradox Report’ by Connected Places Catapult, an innovation agency, and commissioned by the Government, concluded it was unclear whether AVs could help to meet net zero targets without further research.18,58

Potential impacts on land use and noise pollution are uncertain and could differ with time.

Regulation in this area is still being developed but could affect AV development, including how the safety of AVs could be measured or how the UK compares internationally, or if and how AVs could be scaled across industries and on roads.

Key questions for Parliament

  • Do the benefits of AVs outweigh concerns and should this area be a focus for the government?
  • Should the government provide support on transport infrastructure, technologies and/or UK manufacturing of AVs?
  • What regulations could ensure potential benefits of AVs are realised, such as AVs contributing to net zero targets and improving safety on roads?
  • How should the safety of AVs be measured?
  • What regulations could ensure concerns are mitigated against, such as around safety, cyber attack, increased congestion and negative environmental impacts?
  • What type and level of government support may be needed in the upskilling and training of people to work with AVs and in displacement from jobs?
  • How can the government ensure the public are well-informed about AVs and their capabilities?
  • How will UK regulations fit with international frameworks, such as those being developed by the United Nations?

Related documents

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Horizon Scan 2024

Emerging policy issues for the next five years.