Transport system resilience

DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS118

Overview

Transport system resilience refers to the sector’s capacity to deal with, adapt to and recover from disruptions,[1] such as those related to climate change, energy security or geopolitics.

Transport systems consist of infrastructure, management, transport users, and the interaction between these three. They exist at different spatial scales, from the local to the global; bring together different transport modes; and serve different functions (such as passengers or freight), which are often interconnected.[2]

Due to the low number of contributions to the horizon scan on this subject, and given overlap with other articles in this category, POST has not drafted an article for this topic. Instead, the main opportunities and challenges identified by contributors are briefly summarised below:

• Ensuring the reliability of the transport system given predicted increases in the frequency of extreme weather events. This will require sufficient understanding of how all actors (decision-makers, agencies, operators, manufacturers, users) of transport systems, all their components (governance, infrastructure, vehicles, services) and all the stages of their lifecycle (planning and designing, delivering, operating, maintenance), can be adapted to climate change impacts.[3][4][5][6][7]
• Growing interdependencies between infrastructure systems (energy, telecommunications, transport) heightens the risk of cascading failures.[8][9][10][11] For example, disruption to the transport systems caused by flooding may have knock-on impacts on other infrastructure systems and services.[12] There is a need to better understand and predict asset, network and system vulnerabilities. One limitation is the quality of current data and models linking hazard, vulnerability and consequence.[13][14][15][16]
• How the resilience of urban areas and regions can be improved through integrating transport, land use and economic development planning.[17][18][19][20][21] For example, increasing the housing densities in urban neighbourhoods and along arterial routes can make the provision of public transport more viable and increase economic activity, as opposed to dispersed development in areas beyond the built-up urban and suburban areas that are car dependent and lack amenities.[22][23][24][25][26]
• Use of transport network models to develop more efficient approaches and inform transport planning.[27][28] Models can help to understand and probe the resilience of the network.[29][30][31][1] Use of network models can also help inform shifts away from car centred transport approaches to more sustainable modes of transport.[32][33][34]
• Certain links in transport infrastructure, such as bridges, play an essential role in networks but can be vulnerable to natural hazards, such as flooding. Bridges can fail during floods when fast-moving water erodes their foundations, debris piles up against them, or powerful water forces overwhelm their structure.[35]
• The resilience and reliability of electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure to risks such as flooding and cyberthreats.[36][37][38] Providing EV charging at scale requires further integration of the energy and transport systems and may require innovative regulatory approaches to address the vulnerabilities this creates.[39][40][41] Optimal planning of EV charging infrastructure can include energy network considerations.[42][43][44]
• Geopolitical disruption to shipping networks can have serious consequences for ports, but may provide opportunities as well, such as shifts in trade to geopolitically aligned partners.[45][46][47][48]
• The disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic led to long term increases in hybrid and flexible working patterns. This may reduce travel and commuting traffic.[49] However, uncertainties about future working patterns creates challenges for effective forecasting of future travel demand and planning infrastructure.[50][51]

References

[1] Nickdoost, N. et al. (2024). A composite index framework for quantitative resilience assessment of road infrastructure systems. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 131, 104180

[2] ITF (2024). Transport System Resilience: Summary and Conclusions. ITF Roundtable Reports, No. 194, OECD Publishing, Paris

[3] UN trade & development (2019).  Why the transport sector needs to adapt to climate change

[4] Amghar, R. et al. (2024). Resilience as a Service for Transportation Networks: Definition and Basic Concepts. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Volume 2678, Issue 1

[5] Domaneschi, M. et al. (2024). A probabilistic framework for the resilience assessment of transport infrastructure systems via structural health monitoring and control based on a cost function approach. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 1–13

[6] Pan, S., et al. (2021). Vulnerability and resilience of transportation systems: A recent literature review. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 581, 126235

[7] Watson, G. et al. (2022). A Systematic Review: To Increase Transportation Infrastructure Resilience to Flooding Events. Appl. Sci., 12(23), 12331

[8] House of Commons House of Lords Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy. Readiness for storms ahead? Critical national infrastructure in an age of climate change. First Special Report of Session 2022–23

[9] Committee on Climate Change. (2022). Understanding climate risks to UK infrastructure: Evaluation of the third round of the Adaptation Reporting Power.

[10] Swiss Re. (2024). Beyond broken infrastructure – the cascading effects of natural catastrophes

[11] Townend, R. et al. (2023). Cascading climate risks: strategic recommendations for European resilience. Chatham House

[12] Ferguson, N. et al. (2023). Vulnerability of the Scottish Road Network to Flooding. Scottish Roads Research Board.

[13] Hoff, R. et al. (2025). Cascading Failure Propagation and Perfect Storms in Interdependent Infrastructures. ASCE OPEN: Multidisciplinary Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, Issue 1

[14] Barquet, K. et al. (2023). Conceptualising multiple hazards and cascading effects on critical infrastructures. Disasters, Volume 48, Issue1, e12591

[15] Assad, R. et al. (2024). Determining Critical Cascading Effects of Flooding Events on Transportation Infrastructure Using Data Mining Algorithms. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Volume 30, Issue 3

[16] Mühlhofer, E. et al. (2023). A generalized natural hazard risk modelling framework for infrastructure failure cascades. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume 234, 109194

[17] RICS. (2021). Integrating land use and transport policies

[18] National Infrastructure Commission. 2025. Transport

[19] CIHT. (2024). CIHT urges UK government to integrate transport and planning

[20] UK 2070 Commission. (2020). Make No Little Plans. Acting at scale for a fairer and stronger future. Final report of the UK2070 Commission.

[21] Ali, S. et al. (2024). Urban Integrated Sustainable Transportation Networks. In: Interconnected Modern Multi‐Energy Networks and Intelligent Transportation Systems: Towards a Green Economy and Sustainable Development. Wiley

[22] Glockman, M. et al. (2021). Quantitative evidence for leapfrogging in urban growth. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, Volume 49, Issue 1

[23] Bueno-Suárez, C., et al. (2020). Sustaining What Is Unsustainable: A Review of Urban Sprawl and Urban Socio-Environmental Policies in North America and Western Europe. Sustainability, 12(11), 4445

[24] Saeidizand, P., et al. (2025). Car dependency contributors in global metropolitan areas over time. Journal of Transport Geography, Volume 123, 104152

[25] Lyu, S. et al. (2025). Urban sprawl, public transportation efficiency and carbon emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 489, 144652

[26] Muñoz, J., et al. (2024). Why do we rely on cars? Car dependence assessment and dimensions from a systematic literature review. European Transport Research Review, Volume 16, article number 17

[27] Wang, A. et al. (2024). Quantification and comparison of hierarchy in Public Transport Networks. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 634, 129479

[28] Tsigdinos, S. et al. (2023). Rethinking road network hierarchy towards new accessibility perspectives. Transportation Research Procedia, Volume 69, Pages 195-202

[29] Martín, B. et al. (2021). Assessing road network resilience: An accessibility comparative analysis. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 95, 102851

[30] Li, Z. et al. (2024). Service flow changes in multilayer networks: A framework for measuring urban disaster resilience based on availability to critical facilities. Landscape and Urban Planning Volume 244, 104996

[31] Zhang, D. et al. (2024). Resilience analysis of maritime transportation networks: a systematic review. Transportation Safety and Environment, Volume 6, Issue 4

[32] Yannis, G., et al. (2022). Transport System and Infrastructure. Transportation Research Procedia Volume 60, Pages 6-11

[33] Tsigdinos, S. et al. (2024). Contextualizing urban road network hierarchy and its role for sustainable transport futures: A systematic literature review using bibliometric analysis and content analysis tools. Frontiers of Engineering Management

[34] Haarstad, H. et al. (2022). Beyond automobility? Lock-in of past failures in low-carbon urban mobility innovations. Energy Policy, Volume 166, 113002

[35] Buka-Vaivade, K., et al. (2025). Advancing bridge resilience: a review of monitoring technologies for flood-prone infrastructure. Open Research Europe

[36] NC Clean Energy Technology Centre. (2023). Empowering Tomorrow: Considerations for Resilient Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Amidst Natural Disasters.

[37] Raman, G. et al. (2022). Resilience of urban public electric vehicle charging infrastructure to flooding. Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 3213

[38] Sepehrzad, R., et al. (2024). Enhancing Cyber-Resilience in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Volume: 25, Issue: 11, Page(s): 18049 – 18062

[39] Langendahl, P., et al. (2016).  Governing Effective and Legitimate Smart Grid Developments. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Energy, Themed issue on smart grids, 169 (3) 102-109.

[40] Energy System Catapult. (2023). Resilient Electric Vehicle Charging

[41] Hussain, A. et al. (2022). Resilience Enhancement Strategies For and Through Electric Vehicles. Sustainable Cities and Society, Volume 80, 103788

[42] Dan, Z. et al. (2025). City information models for optimal EV charging and energy-resilient renaissance. Nexus, Volume 2, Issue 1, 100056

[43] HM Government. (2022). Taking charge: the electric vehicle infrastructure strategy

[44] DBEIS. (2023). Electric Vehicle Smart Charging Action Plan Affordable, sustainable power for electric vehicles

[45] Yap, w. et al. (2024). Geopolitical tension and shipping network disruption: Analysis of the Red Sea crisis on container port calls. Journal of Transport Geography, Volume 121, 104004

[46] Karamalegkos, A. (2025). How Key Conflict Hotspots Will Shape Shipping in 2025. CZAPP

[47] Lumen, R. et al. (2025). Global shipping: navigating the waves of geopolitics. ING

[48] McKinsey Global Partners. (2024). Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade.

[49] Curtis, C. et al. (2025). Sustainable urban mobility transitions through working from home (WFH). Travel Behaviour and Society, Volume 39, 100953

[50] Summix. Travelling sustainably – how hybrid working impacts the future of how we travel

[51] EY Ireland. (2023). Hybrid Work Becomes Embedded, Public Transport Usage Increases As Workers Embrace Flexibility

Photo by: Ian Britton. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 / image cropped.