DOI: https://doi.org/10.58248/HS57

Overview

Infrastructure includes telecommunications, digital, energy, finance, transport, water, housing and health systems. It underpins the services vital to modern societies and quality of life (physical threats to infrastructure).[i],[ii],[iii]

The increasing use of AI and digital technologies in UK infrastructure was identified by researchers in a POST consultation as being of relevance to Parliament over the next five years.

Digitalisation within UK infrastructure is helping to drive innovations, investments, and economic growth.3,[iv],[v] A 2022 Amazon-commissioned report by consultancy Public First estimated that digitalisation in the UK economy, including within infrastructure, could grow the economy by £413 billion by 2030.5

Various reports have stated that in order to increase digitalisation in infrastructure, government support is needed to help organisations adopt digital technologies, improve the digital skills of workers, invest in digital connectivity and to develop clear regulations.3,4,5,[vi]

The 2023 National Risk Register outlines how disruptions from cyber-attacks or physical threats to digital infrastructure could have widespread impacts on individuals and the economy.[vii] Other concerns include the exclusion from the benefits of digitalised services in regions or demographic groups that lack connectivity and how personal data collected by the operators of digitalised infrastructure is managed.[viii],[ix]

In 2021, the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, the government’s centre of expertise on infrastructure, published a Transforming Infrastructure Performance Roadmap to 2030 that aimed to use modern digital approaches and technologies.[x]

The 2024 Kings Speech mentioned a Planning and Infrastructure Bill to accelerate the delivery of high-quality infrastructure and encourage investment in new technologies.[xi]

Challenges and opportunities

Digitalisation in infrastructure can improve efficiency through a range of mechanisms.3,[xii] For example:

  • in energy, sensors, artificial intelligence (AI), software and data on energy systems can manage supply and demand, predict failures, carry out remote maintenance and increase the physical capacity of networks1,[xiii]
  • in banking, mobile apps or websites are increasingly used to perform transactions. AI and automation can help to streamline internal operations and detect fraud (PB57)
  • in construction, virtual data replications of projects, known as ‘digital twins,’ can help to simulate different construction methods, predict extreme weather impacts on physical infrastructure, use resources effectively and monitor project progress.[xiv] For example, digital twins were used by the HS2 rail project to create a virtual railway that helped optimise the design, construction, operation and eventual decommissioning of the railway[xv]
  • in transport, advances in AI, computing and data analytics are aiding the development of automated vehicles (PB62). Improvements in sensors collecting data, data processing and communications networks, is helping transport infrastructure to become increasingly efficient and connected, known as ‘smart’ (PN656). For example, a smart trip can involve a user using a smartphone to plan and book a single journey across railways, roads and multiple cities6

Space-based assets (PN654) and emerging and future telecommunications networks, such as 5G and 6G, could deliver further digitalisation benefits including smart transport developments, e-healthcare and automated manufacturing (CPB7883, upcoming 6G POSTnote).[xvi],[xvii]

A 2023 inquiry report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy warned that much of the UKs national infrastructure is vulnerable to cyber-attack.[xviii] As infrastructure becomes more reliant on digital technologies, disruption from a potential successful cyber-attack increases. Experts speaking to the Science, Innovation and Technology Committee highlighted the importance of technologies being “secure-by-design and default” and assessing cyber security risks in supply chains.[xix],[xx] The 2024 Kings speech briefing notes mention a Cyber Security and Resilience Bill that aims to expand regulation to protect digital services and supply chains.[xxi]

Physical damage to infrastructure, such as to telecommunications satellites or cables, can be caused by extreme weather events and malicious attacks (Physical threats to infrastructure).[xxii] The number of satellites in space are also growing, increasing levels of space debris and the chance of collisions (PN654). In October 2023, the UK Government predicted that the economic loss of a seven-day disruption to global navigation satellites could cost the UK £7.6 billion.[xxiii] Some academic research states digital technologies and AI could reduce physical threats from climate change to critical infrastructure by providing rapid assessments of infrastructure conditions.[xxiv]

To build and maintain digitalised infrastructure, operators need reliable supplies of technology parts such as semiconductor chips and critical minerals. Concerns about the supply chains for these components include:

  • geopolitical issues, such as conflicts or trade wars, and natural disasters that can disrupt supply chains stages such as manufacturing facilities (PN721)
  • national security risks from exports or foreign ownership of critical digital parts (PN721)
  • the sustainability of essential minerals and raw materials required for digital technologies (PB45)[xxv]

The government published a Critical Imports and Supply Chains Strategy in January 2024 that aimed to ensure the security and resilience of supply chains.[xxvi]

Digitalisation could produce inequalities, such as different levels of health care or transport quality, as people who do not have access to internet or devices are excluded from certain services (PN725, CDP41). These findings were reported in a 2023 House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee inquiry into digital exclusion, which highlighted the importance of improving access to broadband and mobile infrastructure.[xxvii] MPs speaking in a debate on digital exclusion argued it was important to retain offline, in-person options for people who cannot or do not want to access services online.[xxviii]

There are privacy risks around personal data collected by organisations managing digital infrastructure. For example, automation in transport could result in transport companies collecting personal data such as about people’s habits that could be used to try to target individuals with advertisements or put individuals at risk of physical harm or stalking (PB62).6 Academics suggest that data should only be collected if it is useful, and if the advantage gained from the data is worth the privacy risk (PB62).

Finally, experts have raised concerns around large amounts of energy used by digital infrastructure and large AI models (PN677, PB57).[xxix],[xxx] In 2020, data centres, communication networks and user devices accounted for an estimated 4-6% of global electricity use (PN677). However, digital technologies and AI could also help to decrease carbon emissions by optimising energy usage and improving logistical efficiency (PB57).[xxxi] Energy efficiency of digital technologies have increased rapidly due to developments in computer devices and trends such as cloud computing (PN677).

Key uncertainties/unknowns

The exact nature of climate risks to national infrastructure is unclear (physical threats to infrastructure). Whilst this uncertainty can make resilience planning for infrastructure risks challenging, various tools could support plans, including adaptation options for various climate scenarios (physical threats to infrastructure).

Experts have highlighted how there is a need for more understanding of interdependent risks between infrastructure sectors.[xxxii],[xxxiii],[xxxiv] For example, a storm causing damage to a major bridge could impact alternative transport options, commuters, freight traffic and emergency services.30 Managing interdependencies requires cooperation between a wide range of public and private stakeholders.29,30 A lesson learned from the winter 2021/22 storms was the importance of communication between mobile network operators and energy companies to identify where power was needed to restore mobile services.[xxxv] It can often be difficult for different infrastructure sectors to share relevant information due to it being sensitive.30

Many technology supply chains use a complex network of third-party suppliers (CBP9821). Organisations can have limited visibility of their supply chains and lack expertise to understand cyber risks, making it challenging to keep technology infrastructure secure from attack.[xxxvi]

In addition, it can be difficult to predict how and who may try to attack critical infrastructure.7 In the past few years there has been a growth of cyber-attacks “as a service”, which has increased the range of people who could potentially carry out an attack (RR17).

There is limited evidence on the energy use of technology infrastructure, uncertainties about how emerging technologies such as AI could affect this energy use (PN677). This uncertainty could make it difficult to predict future energy capacity needed for emerging technologies in infrastructure or how environmental impacts of digital infrastructure should be regulated.27,28

Key questions for Parliament

  • What steps should the UK take to maximise the benefits of digital technologies and AI in infrastructure? What resources, skills and regulations do organisations need to adopt these technologies effectively?
  • How will AI be regulated and how might this impact AI applications within UK infrastructure?
  • How can the government enhance resilience in the supply chains of critical infrastructure?
  • How does the UK’s supply chain resilience for critical infrastructure compare to other countries?
  • What steps should the UK take to protect against physical threats and cyber-attacks?
  • What steps should be taken and by who to protect against the digital exclusion and privacy risks?
  • What steps need to be taken for digital infrastructure to have a net positive impact on the environment?
  • How can interdependency risks be better identified? How can infrastructure sectors work together to mitigate interdependency risks?
  • Should infrastructure sectors be running mock-blackouts to plan for digital frailty and disconnects to enhance future readiness and response?
  • How can the government ensure that critical digital infrastructure, including networks, physical computing components and virtual software remains competitive internationally?

Related documents

References

[i] Sustainable Digital Infrastructure Alliance (online). Definition for Digital infrastructure.

[ii] House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee. Cyber resilience of the UK’s critical national infrastructure Inquiry.

[iii] National Infrastructure Commission (2023). Second National Infrastructure Assessment.

[iv] House of Commons Hansard (2024). Technology in Public Services. Volume 753, debated on Monday 2 September 2024.

[v] PublicFirst (2022). Unlocking the UK’s Digital Ambitions.

[vi] PwC (2020). The global forces shaping the future of infrastructure: Global infrastructure trends

[vii] HM Government (2023). National Risk Register: 2023 edition.

[viii] Signé, L. (2023). Fixing the global digital divide and digital access gap. Brookings.

[ix] Nguyen, T.-H. et al. (2022). Emerging Privacy and Trust Issues for Autonomous Vehicle Systems. in 2022 International Conference on Information Networking (ICOIN). 52–57.

[x] UK Government (2021). Transforming Infrastructure Performance: Roadmap to 2030.

[xi] UK Government (2024). The King’s Speech 2024.

[xii] Fusiek, D. (2022). Connecting the world. European Investment Bank

[xiii] Plett, R. et al. (2024). The AI Revolution and Critical Infrastructure. Cisco Blogs.

[xiv] Farooq, U. (2024). How digital twins are transforming the construction industry.

[xv] UK Government (2023). Data and digitalisation – powering the UK’s major government projects.

[xvi] UKTIN (2024). Artificial Intelligence Future Capability Paper.

[xvii] European Space Agency (online). Infrastructure and Smart Cities.

[xviii] Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy (2023). A hostage to fortune: ransomware and UK national security.

[xix] House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, Cyber resilience of the UK’s critical national infrastructure – Oral evidence, 24 April 2024

[xx] Gokkaya et al. (2023). A methodology for cybersecurity risk assessment in supply chains. The 4th International Workshop on Cyber-Physical Security for Critical Infrastructures Protecstion, The Hague, Netherlands. 28 Sep – 29 Oct 2023.

[xxi] UK Government (2024). King’s Speech 2024: background briefing notes.

[xxii] Wooff, S. et al. (2024). Resilience to climate change: impacts on infrastructure availability and users. KPMG UK Blog.

[xxiii] UK Government (2023). The economic impact on the UK of a disruption to GNSS.

[xxiv] Argyroudis, S. et al. (2022). Digital technologies can enhance climate resilience of critical infrastructure. Climate Risk Management, Vol 35.

[xxv] United Nations trade & development (2024). Digital economy report 2024.

[xxvi] UK Government (2024). Critical Imports and Supply Chains Strategy.

[xxvii] House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee (2023). Digital exclusion and the cost of living inquiry.

[xxviii] House of Commons Hansard (2024). Digital Exclusion. Volume 746, debated on Wednesday 28 February 2024

[xxix] Ramachandran, V. et al. (2024). Unmasking the Fear of AI’s Energy Demand. The Breakthrough Institute.

[xxx] Baraniuk, C. (2024). Electricity grids creak as AI demands soar. BBC News.

[xxxi] Kuang, Y. et al. (2024). Impact of the digital economy on carbon dioxide emissions in resource-based cities. Nature Scientific Reports, Vol 14.

[xxxii] Li, N. et al. (2022). Interdependent effects of critical infrastructure systems under different types of disruptions. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol 81.

[xxxiii] Macaulay, T. (2019). The Danger of Critical Infrastructure Interdependency. Centre for International Governance Innovation.

[xxxiv] C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (2019). How to manage infrastructure interdependencies and cascading risk.

[xxxv] Electronic Communications Resilience & Response Group (2022). 2021/2022 Severe Storms Post-Incident Report.

[xxxvi] UK Government (2021). Government response to the call for views on supply chain cyber security.


Photo by: HAIYAN via Adobe Stock

Horizon Scan 2024

Emerging policy issues for the next five years.